Reference Date: 13-October-2026

El Niño curtails production prospects in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 main Primera season maize crops is underway and output is anticipated below average following severe drought conditions associated with El Niño phenomenon. The adverse weather prompted the government to declare a nationwide red alert in August 2026. At the beginning of September, satellite imagery indicated very poor crop conditions in central and eastern areas (VHI map), where about 40 percent of total maize production is concentrated and cultivation is almost entirely rainfed. The area planted to maize is estimated to be below average, due to soil moisture deficits and crop deterioration. Although planting was anticipated by about one month to late April with the aim to mitigate the expected dry weather conditions, rainfall deficits and above‑average temperatures in May 2026 affected crops at early‑development stages, causing widespread losses. Subsequently, erratic precipitation between June and July and a prolonged Canícula period in August further constrained crop development and caused significant yield reduction, particularly in the eastern Dry Corridor regions.

Dry weather conditions are delaying land preparation and planting operations of the 2026/27 minor Postrera season maize crops. Output is anticipated at below‑average levels as expectations of persistent El Niño‑related dry weather conditions during the first months of 2027 have discouraged maize plantings and led farmers to opt for more drought‑resistant crops. As a result, the area sown to maize is expected to be below average, constraining production prospects.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 anticipated above average

Since the removal of import tariffs on basic food commodities in March 2022, cereal imports have been generally on the rise. Cereal import requirements in the 2026/27 marketing year (September/August) are forecast at above‑average level, reflecting the strong demand for maize by the feed industry as well as for wheat and rice for domestic consumption, while severe weather‑related production shortfalls are expected to limit domestic supply.

Prices of maize and beans below year‑earlier levels in August 2026

Wholesale prices of white maize were generally stable between June and September 2026, reflecting adequate market supply supported by large import volumes in the first half of the year. By contrast, prices of red beans increased steadily over the same period, driven by seasonal supply tightness ahead of the delayed start of the minor season harvest. Rising prices of red beans in Nicaragua, the country’s main supplier, further contributed to upward pressure on domestic markets. Nevertheless, above‑average imports between September 2025 and August 2026 kept prices of both white maize and red beans below their year‑earlier levels.

Prices of wheat flour were mostly stable between January and August 2026, after declining by about 10 percent in December 2025 due to a substantial increase in imports, which nearly doubled in the final quarter of 2025 and improved market availability.

The annual food inflation rate generally increased between January and July 2026, driven primarily by rising international fuel prices. The rate reached a peak of 3.7 percent in August 2026, reflecting additional upward pressure from the prolonged lean season and reduced availability of domestically produced food following the negative impact of drought conditions on agricultural activities.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .