Reference Date: 29-April-2024

Main 2024 season maize crop to be planted from May

Planting of the 2024 main primera season maize crop is expected to start in May. Official forecasts point to above‑average rainfall amounts between May and August, improving soil moisture conditions after below‑average rain amounts during the first quarter of 2024 and generally favouring crop development. However, if excessive rains materialize during crop maturation or harvesting stages, they could diminish yields and constrain harvesting operations. In addition, hotter‑than‑average temperatures are forecast in some areas throughout the main cropping season, elevating risks for pest infestations. La Niña phenomenon is forecast to prevail from the period August‑October 2024 to December 2024‑February 2025. The 2024 hurricane season (from June to November) is preliminarily forecast to be more active than average , and thus a close monitoring is required.

Planting area of the 2024 main maize crop is forecast at an average level. Favourable weather conditions and stable fertilizer prices, due to the continued zero tariffs on fertilizer imports, are likely to offset the negative planting intentions that may arise from lower year‑on‑year prices of white maize. In order to improve small‑scale farmers’ access to agricultural inputs, the government will start distributing vouchers of USD 75 to 560 000 small‑holder farmers from mid‑May 2024, with which they can purchase seeds of maize, beans and horticulture crops, and other inputs such as fertilizers and insecticides.

Cereal output estimated to be slightly below average in 2023

Cereal production in 2023 is estimated at about 880 000 tonnes, slightly below the five‑year average, as a result of the prolonged dry spells during the primera season and the passage of tropical storm Pilar at end‑October 2023 in the western part of the country. The adverse weather conditions had a negative impact mostly on small‑holder farmers, likely reducing their food reserves during the lean season between April and July.

Cereal import requirements, mostly maize and wheat, anticipated at high levels in 2023/24

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (September/August) are anticipated at a high level of 1.2 million tonnes. The high level reflects strong demand of wheat and white maize for human consumption and yellow maize by the feed industry. Following the removal of import tariffs on basic food items since March 2022 , imports of white maize rose, and were above the five‑year average both from March 2022 to February 2023 and from March 2023 to February 2024.

Prices of white maize and red beans below year‑earlier levels in March 2024

Prices of white maize and red beans declined between November 2023 and February 2024, weighed by ample supplies from the 2023 harvests and above‑average imports. While maize prices continued to decrease in March 2024, prices of red beans strengthened, following rising prices in Nicaragua, the country’s main supplier of beans. As of March 2024, prices of white maize and red beans were about 25 percent and 8 percent, respectively, lower year‑on‑year. Prices of wheat flour have been stable since September 2023 reflecting adequate supply and, as of March 2024, prices were similar to the values a year before.

The annual food inflation rate in March 2024 was estimated at 2.2 percent , well below the high levels (11.6 percent) recorded a year before.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .