Reference Date: 25-November-2024

Production of 2024 main season maize crops estimated below average due to unfavourable weather conditions

Harvesting of the 2024 main primera season maize crops is nearing completion, later than usual, after severe dry weather conditions at the beginning of the season in May 2024 delayed plantings by one month. The rainy season started late in June, with above-average precipitation amounts causing floods and landslides, and leading to the state of emergency . In July and August 2024, erratic rains further increased cumulative rainfall amounts, providing conducive conditions for crop development. The government inaugurated, in April 2024, the Siembra de Maíz de Alto Rendimiento (SMAR) programme, providing smallholder farmers mechanization services, machinery and trainings to improve yields for maize crops. However, according to FAO’s preliminary estimates, the output is foreseen to be slightly below the average, as the positive effect of the SMAR programme on productivity was more than offset by dry weather conditions at the planting stage, that deterred farmers’ sowing intentions, resulting in a below-average planted area.

Additionally, in May 2024, the government approved the Bono Agrícola, a measure that modified the existing programme for smallholder farmers (Programa Paquetes Agrícolas) from in-kind assistance to distribution of vouchers to purchase seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, assisting about 560 000 farmers.

Lower year-on-year maize prices discouraged plantings of 2025 minor season maize crops

Planting operations of the minor season maize crops, that account for about 20 percent of the annual production, are currently underway and production is expected at a nearaverage level. Sown area is expected to be below average and lower than the previous year, following the reduction of maize prices on a yearly basis, reflecting lower international quotations. Weather forecasts point to a high probability of above-average precipitation amounts and hotter-than-average temperatures during the November 2024 to January 2025 period, in line with the onset of the La Niña phenomenon. Abundant rainfall amounts during the crop maturation stage are likely to favour crop yields, but if excessive rains materialize, crop development is likely to be negatively affected. In addition, above-average temperatures might increase the incidence of pests, forcing farmers to resort to higher quantities of pesticides, thus rising production costs and curbing crop yields.

Cereal import requirements, mostly yellow maize and wheat, anticipated slightly above average in 2024/25

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (September/August) are anticipated at a slightly above-average level of 1.15 million tonnes. The high level reflects strong demand of wheat and white maize for human consumption and yellow maize by the feed industry. In July 2024, the government extended, until 2034, the removal of import tariffs on basic food items and on main agricultural inputs. The measure was firstly introduced in March 2022 and, since then, imports of white maize have been above the five-year average.

Prices of white maize and red beans seasonally decreased in September 2024

Wholesale prices of white maize and red beans increased from May to August 2024 in line with seasonal trends and started declining last September with the beginning of the harvesting operations of the main primera season maize crops and the postrera season bean crops. As of September 2024, prices of maize and red beans were about 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively, lower year-on-year reflecting large availability from the 2023 harvest and above-average imports in marketing year 2023/24. Wheat flour prices were nearly unchanged since February 2024, reflecting adequate market supply, and they were moderately higher than the previous year.

Annual food inflation in September 2024 was reported at a record low of 1.2 percent , the lowest level attained since June 2021 and well below the 6 percent level of one year earlier. The low level is mainly the result of different government measures to counter rising food price trends from February to July 2024. In July 2024, the government announced an increase in the number of agricultural markets (agromercados) facilitated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG), promoting direct sales from producers and importers at markup-free low prices . As of September 2024, 50 agromercados were reported across the country , contributing to restrain food inflation in combination with fuel subsidies and the extended zero tariffs import measures.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .