Reference Date: 05-January-2026

Aggregate 2025 maize output anticipated at near‑average level

Harvesting of the 2025 minor season Postrera maize crops, accounting for about 20 percent of the total annual production, is about to start in January 2026. Despite the high costs of agricultural inputs, the area planted is estimated to be slightly above the five‑year average due to higher year-on-year maize prices at planting time. Above‑average precipitation amounts between September and mid‑October 2025 caused localized floodings and landslides, particularly in coastal areas, and saturated soils hampered planting operations. Adequate soil moisture conditions were restored from mid‑October 2025 onwards and yields are estimated near the average.

The harvest of the 2025 main season maize crops concluded in November 2025. Planting operations started in June 2025, with approximately a one‑month delay due to low precipitation amounts in most of the key cropping areas. Adequate rainfall amounts in June and July 2025 restored favourable conditions for crop development. On aggregate, for the 2025 maize output is estimated at a near‑average level of 805 000 tonnes, rebounding from the low outturn of production in 2024, when above‑average rainfall amounts during the minor season caused crop losses.

Cereal import requirements forecast at above‑average level in 2025/26

Cereal imports account for about 50 percent of the total consumption needs. Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (September/August) are forecast at 1.27 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average. Since the removal of the import tariffs on basic food items and main agricultural inputs in March 2022, cereal imports have been on the rise. The high level reflects the strong demand of wheat and white maize for domestic consumption as well as of yellow maize by the feeding industry.

Despite seasonal declines in October and November 2025, prices of white maize and red beans higher year‑on‑year

Wholesale prices of white maize declined in October and November 2025 with the commercialization of the recently harvested main season crops. However, despite the seasonal ease, white maize prices were still over 30 percent higher year‑on‑year in November 2025, reflecting the tight market supply from the below-average 2024 production and lower year‑on‑year imports from March to September 2025. Similarly, prices of red beans declined seasonally in October and November 2025, and compared to the previous year, they were moderately higher, mainly due to lower year‑on‑year import amounts from June to October 2025. In November 2025, wholesale prices of wheat flour were stable and near the level of the previous year, reflecting an adequate market supply.

After remaining below zero from October 2024 to August 2025, the annual food inflation rate returned positive in September 2025 and was estimated at 2.3 percent in November 2025 . The increase is mainly due to rising production costs as well as to the negative impact of erratic weather conditions on agricultural activities.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .