Reference Date: 28-November-2024

Planting of 2025 winter wheat crop is ongoing

Planting of the 2025 winter wheat crop, which accounts for the bulk of annual production, is ongoing supported by favourable soil moisture conditions and sowings are forecast at average levels. Despite lower year‑on‑year prices of fertilizers, herbicides and fuel, some farmers continue to face challenges to access them due to reduced income caused by low domestic prices of wheat since June 2023 and to limited availability of agricultural credit.

Weather forecasts point to below-average precipitation amounts between December 2024 and February 2025 across most of the country, particularly in northern and central areas where the bulk of wheat is produced. If this forecast materializes, the establishment and early development of winter wheat crops may be affected. In addition, snow cover is expected to be limited in some areas with freezing temperatures with the risk to expose germinating crops to frost damage and reduce soil moisture from melting snow during the spring months.

Above-average cereal output forecast in 2024

Harvesting of the 2024 paddy crop is expected to finalize in late November and the 2024 aggregate cereal production is estimated at 6 million tonnes, 10 percent above the average. Production of wheat, which accounts for the largest share of total cereal output, is estimated at 5 million tonnes, 13 percent above the average, mainly due to excellent yields following favourable weather conditions. However, some localized crop losses occurred in eastern and northcentral wheat producing areas due to flooding in April and May 2024. Production of rice is estimated at an above‑average level of 640 000 tonnes, reflecting both area expansion and above-average yields.

Below‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25

Cereal import requirements, mainly wheat and wheat flour, are forecast at a below‑average level of 3.5 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), due to the above-average production attained in 2024. Even during years with above‑average domestic production of wheat, the country imports large quantities of wheat flour due to an inadequate domestic milling capacity. Imported wheat flour is often blended with domestic flour to improve its protein content.

Wheat flour prices lower year-on-year in October 2024

Retail prices of wheat flour exhibited declining trends between October 2023 and October 2024, reflecting trends in international prices, deflationary pressure and an above-average production harvested in 2024. In October, prices were about 15‑25 percent lower year‑on‑year.

High levels of food insecurity prevail in 2024

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 11.6 million people (about 25 percent of the total population) were estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity in September and October 2024. The main drivers are economic downturns, high unemployment rates and reduced livelihood opportunities, compounded by the effects of the floods in April and May 2024 in eastern and northcentral parts of the country. Trade barriers and lingering shocks from drought, COVID‑19 and forced returns strain resources further. Displacement pressures are set to rise as the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan intensify deportations, while restrictions on women’s employment and income losses from the poppy ban hinder recovery efforts.

However, the prevalence and severity of acute food insecurity declined if compared to the same period of the previous year, when 15.3 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity. The improvement is mainly due to the delivery of large-scale humanitarian food assistance, increased agricultural production in 2024 and low food prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .