Reference Date: 30-July-2025

Below-average 2025 winter wheat crop output estimated due to dry weather conditions

Harvesting of the 2025 winter wheat crop, accounting for the bulk of annual production, finalized last June. Overall production is estimated at a below‑average level due to low cumulative precipitation amounts from October 2024 to March 2025 and elevated temperatures, which resulted in reduced sowings and negatively affecting yields, especially in rainfed areas. Reportedly, some farmers were able to partially mitigate the effects of the rainfall deficits by accessing groundwater resources and, in certain areas, by benefiting from improved access to quality agricultural inputs provided by FAO. Planting of the 2025 spring wheat crop, to be harvested from August, finalized last April, while planting of maize and rice crops finalized in June. Dry weather conditions have prevailed since the start of the season in March, affecting planting operations and early crop development. Remote sensing data (see ASI map) as of mid‑July 2025 indicated particularly poor crop conditions in the northern, central and some southern provinces. Additional rainfall is urgently needed in the coming weeks to prevent significant declines in the production of 2025 spring wheat, rice and maize crops.

Average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025/26

Cereal import requirements, mainly wheat and wheat flour, are forecast at an average level of 3 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June). Even in years with above‑average domestic production of wheat, the country needs to import wheat flour, largely due to insufficient domestic milling capacity. Imported wheat flour is commonly blended with domestic flour to improve its protein content.

Wheat flour prices increased in June and July 2025

Retail prices of wheat flour generally increased between December 2024 and March 2025, reflecting typical seasonal trends and concerns over the impact of dry weather conditions on the 2025 wheat crop. Following short-lived declines in April and May 2025, domestic prices resumed an upward trend in June, driven by the below‑average 2025 winter wheat harvest and growing concerns that continued dryness could negatively affect spring season output. As of July 2025, domestic wheat flour prices were up year‑on‑year in some markets and down year-on-year on others.

High levels of acute food insecurity prevailed in May to October 2025 period

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 9.5 million people were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity from May to October 2025. This represents an improvement compared to the 12.6 million food insecure people in March‑April 2025 period and reflects a generally positive trend over the last four years. Despite this progress, the overall food security the situation remains fragile, largely due to the ongoing economic downturn, high unemployment rates and reduced livelihood opportunities, compounded by continued exposure to climate-related shocks. In addition, as of mid-July 2025, data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) indicated that about 2 million Afghans refugees had returned mostly from Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran, following intensified deportations of foreigner nationals without valid documentation in both countries.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .