Reference Date: 12-January-2026

Area planted with 2026 winter wheat crop estimated at below‑average level

Planting of the 2026 winter wheat crop, accounting for the bulk of the annual production, finalized in November 2025. The area planted is estimated at a below‑average level, reflecting soil moisture deficits and reduced irrigation water availability following below‑average precipitation amounts in the second part of 2025, particularly in the main wheat producing northern and southern areas. Rainfall deficits affected the establishment of crops, which are expected to enter dormancy in early January 2026 under suboptimal growing conditions.

Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of continuation of below‑average precipitation amounts in the northeastern parts of the country between January and March 2026, associated with the prevailing La Niña event. If this forecast materializes, moisture constrains are likely to hinder proper crop emergence and early development. In addition, snow accumulation is likely to be below average, increasing the risk of winterkill due to insufficient protective snow cover and reducing the availability of irrigation water for the 2026 spring and summer crops, expected to be planted from March and from May 2026, respectively.

Average wheat harvest obtained in 2025

Aggregate wheat production in 2025 is estimated at an average level of 4.5 million tonnes. The impact of below-average cumulative precipitation amounts over large parts of the country between April and September 2025 was largely mitigated by an adequate supply of irrigation water. However, in rainfed areas, which account for about 30 percent of total wheat plantings, production was well below average, due to a reduction in both area planted and yields.

Average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025/26

Cereal import requirements, mainly wheat flour, are forecast at an average level of 3.7 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June). Even in years with above‑average domestic production of wheat, the country needs to import wheat flour, largely due to insufficient domestic milling capacity. Most imports are sourced from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the Russian Federation. Imported wheat flour is commonly blended with domestic flour to improve its protein content.

Wheat flour prices higher year‑on‑year in November 2025

Retail prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple food, generally increased between May and November 2025. The price increase is mainly associated with rising transport costs and a sharp reduction of informal trade flows after the closure of the border with Pakistan since September 2025. Additional upward pressure is due to concerns that dry weather conditions could negatively affect the 2026 winter season output. As of November 2025, domestic prices of wheat flour were between 5 and 15 percent up year-on-year in most markets of the country.

Acute food insecurity expected to deteriorate between November 2025 and March 2026

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 17.4 million people (approximately 40 percent of the country’s total population) are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) from November 2025 to March 2026, including about 4.7 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a deterioration compared to the 14.8 million people estimated to be acutely food insecure during the same period of the previous year and it is largely due to persistent economic challenges, high unemployment rates, reduced livelihood opportunities and a significant reduction of humanitarian assistance. The negative impact of dry weather conditions on 2025 wheat production in rainfed areas has also exacerbated the food insecurity situation, particularly in Badakhshan, Ghor, Faryab, Jawzjan, Samangan, Bamyan and Daykundi provinces. As of mid‑December 2025, about 2.8 million Afghans returned to the country, mainly from Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran, following intensified deportations of foreign nationals without valid documentation. Most returnees live in camps and are heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .