Reference Date: 06-May-2025

Dry weather conditions affected 2025 winter wheat crop in several northern and southern parts of the country

Planting of the 2025 winter wheat crop, accounting for the bulk of annual production, finalized in November 2024 and harvesting is expected to start in early May. Cumulative precipitation amounts from October to December 2024 were well below the long‑term average, resulting in below‑average sowings and affecting crop establishment, especially in rainfed areas. Between January and March 2025, precipitation amounts remained erratic, although short-term episodes of average to above‑average rainfall amounts in central and southern parts of the country benefited crops that emerged from dormancy in early March. Water deficits persisted in April 2025 across most of the country. Remote sensing data (ASI map) as of early April 2025 indicated particularly poor crop conditions in several northern and southern provinces. Reportedly, farmers were able to mitigate the effects of the rainfall deficits in some areas by accessing ground water supplies.

Planting of the 2025 spring wheat crop, to be harvested from August 2025, finalized in April. Planting of maize and rice crops began in early May and will continue until June. Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of below‑average precipitation amounts and elevated temperatures from April to June over large parts of the country. If this forecast materializes, yields of late‑planted rainfed 2025 winter crops and planting operations of the 2025 spring wheat crops may be affected.

Above‑average cereal harvest obtained in 2024

Aggregate cereal production in 2024 is estimated at 6 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average. Production of wheat, which accounts for the largest share of total cereal output, is estimated at 5 million tonnes, 13 percent above the average, mainly due to excellent yields following favourable weather conditions. However, some localized crop losses occurred in eastern and northcentral wheat producing areas due to flooding in April and May 2024. Production of rice is estimated at an above‑average level of 640 000 tonnes, reflecting both area expansion and above‑average yields.

Average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25

Cereal import requirements, mainly wheat and wheat flour, are forecast at an average level of 3.5 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June). Even during years with above‑average domestic production of wheat, the country needs to import wheat flour, primarily due to an inadequate domestic milling capacity. Imported wheat flour is often blended with domestic flour to improve its protein content.

Wheat flour prices lower year‑on‑year in March 2025

Retail prices of wheat flour generally declined between October 2023 and November 2024, reflecting trends in international prices, deflationary pressure and an above‑average production harvested in 2024. From December 2024 to March 2025, prices of wheat flour generally increased on concerns about the effect of dry weather conditions on the 2024 wheat crop, but, as of March 2025, prices remained about 10‑25 percent lower year‑on‑year.

High levels of acute food insecurity prevailed in November 2024 to March 2025 period

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 14.8 million people were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity from November 2024 to March 2025. This represents a substantial deterioration compared with the September to October 2024 period, when about 11.6 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity. The worsening situation is largely due to the economic downturn, high unemployment rates and reduced livelihood opportunities. In addition, trade barriers and lingering shocks from drought, COVID‑19 pandemic and forced returns, strain limited resources further. Displacement pressures are set to rise as the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan intensify deportations of foreign nationals without valid documentation, while restrictions on women’s employment and income losses from the poppy ban hinder recovery efforts.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .