Reference Date: 09-November-2023

Cereal production in 2023 estimated at above‑average level

Harvesting of 2023 winter cereals, mainly wheat, planted between September and November 2022, finalized in August 2023. Spring grains in 2023, mainly maize and rice, were planted between April and June and the harvest took place in September 2022.

The aggregate 2023 cereal output is estimated at about 8.4 million tonnes, 20 percent above the five ‑ year average level, following favourable weather conditions during the growing season. Wheat production is pegged at slightly a above ‑ average level of 7.1 million tonnes. Maize and rice production are also estimated at above‑average levels, with respective outputs set at 600 000 tonnes and 355 000 tonnes.

Planting of 2024 winter cereals, to be harvested from June next year, started in October 2023 and it is currently ongoing under favourable weather conditions.

Near‑average wheat import requirements forecast in 2023/24 marketing year

In the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), import requirements of wheat, including wheat grain and wheat flour, accounting on average for over 90 percent of the total cereal purchases, are forecast at a near ‑ average level of 3.3 million tonnes. Imports of wheat flour have increased by 75 percent between 2013/14 and 2023/24, and purchases of high quality wheat grain, mainly sourced from Kazakhstan, have sharply increased due to the improved local milling capacity.

Average inflation in 2023 forecast to decrease on yearly basis

According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the average inflation rate is forecast to decrease from 12–14 percent in 2022 to
8.5–9.5 percent in 2023. However, food inflation remained high troughout 2023 and the national average price of rice has increased by 90 percent from September 2022 to August 2023; instead, the national average price of wheat has remained stable from June 2022 to August 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .