Reference Date: 19-May-2025

Drier-than-average weather conditions affected soil moisture for 2025 winter cereals

Planting of the 2025 winter cereals, mainly wheat, to be harvested between June and August, finalized last November. According to FAO's Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS), cumulative precipitation during October and November 2024 was approximately 20 percent below the long-term average in key cereal-producing regions. This deficit, coupled with warmer-than-average temperatures, led to reduced soil moisture levels across most planted areas, potentially impacting crop development. These conditions are supported by FAO's Earth Observation data, which indicate below-average rainfall and elevated temperatures during the same period.

Cereal production in 2024 estimated at above-average level

Aggregate 2024 cereal production is estimated at about 8 million tonnes, 10 percent above the five‑year average level, mainly due to favourable weather conditions during the growing season. Wheat production is pegged at a slightly above‑average level of 6.7 million tonnes. Maize is also estimated at above‑average levels, with the output set at 722 000 tonnes. This performance also reflects national efforts to strengthen agricultural resilience. In response to drier-than-average conditions, the country has promoted drought-tolerant wheat varieties, improved irrigation systems and implemented projects to support climate adaptation in the sector.

Near-average wheat import requirements forecast in 2024/25 marketing year

In the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), import requirements of wheat, including grains and flour, accounting on average for over 90 percent of total cereal purchases, are forecast at a near-average level of 3.5 million tonnes. In particular, imports of wheat flour have increased by about 70 percent between 2014/15 and 2024/25, driven by a combination of factors, including rising domestic demand, limited processing capacity and trade policies that have made imports more economically attractive in recent years. Similarly, purchases of high-quality wheat grain, mainly sourced from Kazakhstan, have risen, driven by improvements in local milling capacity in the 2024/25 marketing year.

Average inflation rate projected to decrease by end of 2025

According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), inflation is forecast to decrease from 10.3 percent in early 2025 to around 8 percent by the end of the year, aided by tight monetary policies and the fading impact of previous energy price reforms. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Uzbekistan's real GDP growth will rise from 5.6 percent in 2024 to 5.7 percent in 2025.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .