Reference Date: 05-March-2026

Cereal production in 2026 forecast at above‑average level

Planting of the 2026 winter cereals, mainly wheat, to be harvested between June and August, finalized last November; while planting of spring cereal is expected to begin in April 2026. According to remote sensing data, cumulative precipitation amounts during October and November 2025 were near average in key cereal-producing regions, improving soil moisture levels and boosting crop development.

Aggregate production of 2025 cereal crops, harvest of which was completed last September, is estimated at an above-average level of 8.9 milllion tonnes, including 7.3 million tonnes of wheat and about 900 000 tonnes of maize.

Near-average wheat imports requirements forecast in 2025/26 marketing year

In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), wheat import requirements, including grains and flour, which on average account for over 90 percent of the total cereal imports, are forecast at a near-average level of 4 million tonnes. Imports of wheat flour have increased by about 70 percent between 2015/16 and 2025/26, driven by rising domestic demand. Similarly, purchases of high quality wheat grain, mainly sourced from Kazakhstan, have increased during the last ten years, reflecting improvements in local milling capacity in the 2025/26 marketing year.

Average inflation rate in 2025 declined to lowest level in past five years

According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), the annual inflation rate declined from 9.8 percent in early 2025 to 7.3 percent at the end of the year, supported by tight monetary policies. According to the National Statistics Committee, the real Gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased from 6.0 percent in 2024 to 7.6 percent in 2025, the highest level since 2021.

National average prices of first grade wheat flour, a key staple, were below the previous year’s level, due to the above-average wheat harvest in 2024 and adequate import availability.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .