Reference Date: 14-July-2026

Favourable production prospects for 2026 wheat crop

Harvesting of the 2026 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat, is ongoing and is expected to be completed by mid‑August 2026. Cumulative precipitation amounts between March and May 2026 were near average in key cereal‑producing regions, improving soil moisture conditions and supporting crop development. Planting of the 2026 spring grain crops, mainly maize and rice, was completed in June and harvesting is expected to start in August.

Aggregate cereal production in 2026 is tentatively forecast at an above-average level of about 9 million tonnes, including 7.3 million tonnes of wheat and about 900 000 tonnes of maize.

Wheat import requirements forecast slightly above average in 2026/27 marketing year

In the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June), wheat import requirements, including grain and flour, which on average account for over 90   percent of total cereal imports, are forecast at a slightly above-average level of 4.2   million   tonnes. Imports of wheat flour have increased by about 70   percent between 2016/17 and 2026/27, largely reflecting sustained growh in domestic demand. Similarly, imports of high‑quality wheat grain, sourced mainly from Kazakhstan, have increased over the last decade, supported by sustained investments in domestic milling capacity.

Average inflation in 2026 declined to a five-year low

According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), the annual inflation rate declined from 7.3 percent at the end of 2025 to 5.5 percent in May 2026, supported by tight monetary policy. As a result, the average inflation rate in 2026 fell to its lowest level in the past five years, reflecting easing price pressures and improved macroeconomic stability. However, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the real GDP growth is forecast to slow from 7.7 percent in 2025 to 6.8 in 2026. National average prices of first-grade wheat flour, a key staple food, were above their year‑earlier levels, reflecting elevated input costs and higher wheat import prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .