Reference Date: 14-March-2025

Planting of 2025 winter crops completed

The planting of 2025 winter ceral crops, predominantly wheat, has concluded, with an estimated 5.98 million hectares sown, surprassing the previous year’s figures. However, this expansion occurred under challenging circumstances. Insufficient soil moisture, caused by inadequate rainfall, impeded sowing operations across all regions. While progress has been made in demining areas where active combat has ceased, the lingering presence of unexploded ordnance continues to limit farmers’ access to their fields.

Cereal production in 2024 estimated about 20 percent below average

Since 2022, the war’s economic impact has significantly constrained agricultural activities, manifesting in restricted field access, labour shortages, high production costs and low farmgate prices. Fertilizer application and harvesting operations have been further impeded by residual war hazards, particularly landmines, resulting in substantial unharvested cropped areas. Cereal production in 2024 is estimated at about 55 million tonnes, around 10 percent below the previous year’s level. Specifically, the wheat harvest is estimated at about 22.4 million tonnes, nearly consistent with the year before. The 2024 barley harvest is estimated at 5.6 million tonnes,a marginal reduction from the privious year. Maize output is estimated at 25 million tonnes, a decline of over 15 percent compared to the previous year.

Export volumes in 2024/25 expected to remain below pre ‑ war levels

Cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 40 million tonnes, a decrease from the pevious year. This reduction reflects both abundant global supplies and the war’s detrimental impact on domestic transport and storage infrastructures. Specifically, maize exports are forecast at 21 million tonnes, wheat at 16 million tonnes and barley at 2.9 million tonnes.

Wheat export prices increased year-on-year

Food availability at the national level is reported to be adequate, but access to food remains a major challenge. The country has previously experienced elevated food price inflation due to the economic impact of conflict in eastern regions. In February 2025, wheat export prices rose month-on-month, driven by strong demand, limited supply from agricultural producers and low stock levels. Furthermore, high unemployment rates and diminished livelihood opportunities as well as escalating energy prices are eroding households’ purchasing power, contributing to increased poverty rates.

About 12.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in 2025

The 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP), the strategic framework developed by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) to address critical humanitarian needs, estimates that about 12.7 million people (36 percent of the population) will require multisectoral humanitarian assistance in 2025. As of December 2024, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that approximately 3.7 million people are within the country.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .