Reference Date: 12-March-2026

Favourable weather conditions for 2026 winter crops completed

The planting of 2026 winter cereal crops, primarily wheat, was completed last November, with approximately a 5.4 million hectares sown decrease of 5 percent compared to the previous year and still below the five-year average due to continued constraints on farmers’ access to fields as a result of the war. Adequate rainfall amounts at the end of last year helped restore soil moisture in major main winter wheat producing regions, providing favourable conditions for early crop development, while a cold spell between January and February 2026 improved snow cover, protecting dormant wheat crops.

Cereal production in 2025 estimated about 5 percent below average

Since 2022, the war has significantly constrained agricultural activities, through restricted field access, shortage of labour, high production costs and low farmgate prices. Fertilizer application and harvesting operations have been impeded by the presence of residual war hazards, particularly landmines, resulting in substantial unharvested cropped areas. According to the latest Food Security and Agricultural Livelihoods Assessment, landmine contamination remains a major constraint to agricultural recovery in the frontline oblast. It prevents the safe return of displaced farming households, limits access to fields and seasonal labour, and continues to hinder rehabilitation efforts even in retaken areas. The assessment indicates that about 13 percent of agricultural households in frontline oblasts have lost cultivable land due to explosive hazards, effectively sidelining more than one-tenth of productive land.

Cereal production in 2025 is estimated at about 60.8 million tonnes, approximately 6 percent below the five-year average, but 8 percent above the 2024 level, amid generally conducive weather conditions. Maize output is estimated at 30.7 million tonnes, 14 percent above the previous year’s level. Production of wheat and barley is estimated at about 23.3 million tonnes and 5.2 million tonnes, respectively, both similar to the year before.

Export volumes in 2025/26 expected to remain below pre-war levels

Cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 40 million tonnes, about 20 percent below the previous year. The reduction reflects both abundant global supplies and low international prices, which reduce the competitiveness of export sales. At the same time, the war continues to constrain transport and storage capacities, limiting the sector’s ability to fully capitalize on this year’s increased production. Specifically, maize exports are forecast at 23 million tonnes, wheat exports at 14 million tonnes and barley exports at 2.5 million tonnes.

Wheat export prices decreased between April 2025 and January 2026

Food availability at the national level is reported to be adequate, but access to food remains a major challenge. The country has experienced an elevated food price inflation due to the impact of conflict. Between April 2025 and January 2026, wheat export prices decreased by about 7 percent, remaining 5 percent below the previous year’s level. At the beginning of July 2025, the European Union decided to raise Ukraine’s duty free wheat import quota, to be shipped before the end of the year, from 1 million to 1.3 million tonnes, which further exerted downward pressure on export prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .