Reference Date: 28-August-2026

Generally favourable performance of 2026 seasonal rains

In southern and central bimodal rainfall areas, harvesting of the 2026 main‑season maize crop is underway and is expected to be completed in September. The first rainy season, which typically extends from March to July, had generally a timely start and near- to above‑average cumulative rainfall amounts through the end of July, supporting crop development. Remote sensing data, as of late July 2026, just before the start of the harvest, indicated near‑average vegetation conditions across most producing areas, pointing to overall favourable production prospects. Planting of the 2026 millet and sorghum crops concluded in July, followed by the completion of rice planting in mid‑August. Harvesting of all three crops is expected to take place during the last quarter of 2026.

In northern unimodal rainfall areas, planting of the 2026 coarse grain and rice crops was completed in early August. The rainy season, which typically extends from April to October, was marked by early‑season dryness and an erratic distribution of precipitation through early July in parts of Kara and Savanes regions, delaying planting operations, hampering crop emergence and requiring replanting in some areas. Although weather conditions improved between mid‑July and early August, satellite‑based imagery still indicates pockets of below‑average vegetation conditions in northern parts of Kara Region as of early August.

According to the latest seasonal weather forecast update by the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre for West Africa and the Sahel (AGRHYMET RCC-WAS) , below‑average cumulative precipitation amounts are expected between August and October 2026 in central and southern areas, which may negatively affect yields. By contrast, there is high likelihood of near- to above‑average cumulative rainfall amounts in northern areas, likely supporting crop development, but also increasing the risk of localized flooding.

In the conflict‑affected Savanes Region, agricultural labour costs reportedly increased by 10 to 20 percent compared to the previous season, raising production costs and reducing farmers’ capacity to hire workers. Together with reduced cultivated areas in the most insecure localities and elevated agricultural input prices, these factors are expected to constrain local production prospects.

Cereal production in 2025 estimated at above‑average level

The 2025 aggregate cereal production is officially estimated at nearly 1.7 million tonnes, about 15 percent above the average of the previous five years. This good output reflects generally favourable weather conditions and sustained government support to farmers, including the provision of agricultural inputs, fertilizer subsidy programmes, improved access to tractors and agricultural credit facilities.

Prices of cereals near or below year‑earlier values in June 2026

Retail prices of locally produced maize and imported rice remained stable or declined between March and June 2026, with decreases of up to 15 percent and 10 percent, respectively. In June 2026, prices of maize were 25 to 40 percent lower on a yearly basis, whereas prices of rice were near or up to 15 percent below their year‑earlier levels. The relatively low prices reflected ample market supply and weak export demand.

About 332 000 people estimated to face severe acute food insecurity between June and August 2026

According to the latest available Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis about 332 000 people (5 percent of the analysed population) are estimated to face severe acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis]) during the June to August 2026 lean season. This is a marked improvement from the corresponding period in 2025, when approximately 625 000 people (10 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to face severe acute food insecurity. The year‑on‑year improvement largely reflects the adverse impact of the severe dry spells in 2024 on cereal production and livelihoods, which contributed to elevated levels of acute food insecurity in 2025.

Civil insecurity in northern areas remains a key driver of acute food insecurity. Approximately 45 percent of the people estimated to face CH Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of acute food insecurity are in the Savanes Region, where persistent attacks by non‑state armed groups prompted the government to extend a state of emergency until March 2027. Despite a year‑on‑year decline in violent incidents in the first half of 2026, civil insecurity continued to disrupt livelihoods and trade and trigger population displacement, with about 13 400 people internally displaced as of June 2026. The Savanes Region also hosts about 90 percent of the country’s 65 000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from Burkina Faso. The presence of these forcibly displaced populations exerts additional pressure on natural resources and livelihoods in host communities, contributing to low incomes and further constraining poor households’ access to food.

Heavy rainfall in late June 2026 caused flooding in the Greater Lomé area and in parts of the Maritime and Plateaux regions, affecting about 26 600 people and damaging housing and infrastructure, with likely adverse impacts on livelihoods.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Cadre Harmonisé (CH) https://www.cadreharmonise.org/ .