Reference Date: 11-October-2024

Cereal production in 2024 forecast at slightly above-average level

In southern bimodal rainfall areas, which account for the bulk of the domestic maize output, harvesting of the 2024 main season maize crop concluded in September. In most areas, cumulative rainfall amounts between March and July were generally adequate to satisfy cereal crop water requirements, supporting yields. In some parts of the Plateaux Region, rainfall deficits in June and July affected crops during critical stages of development, leading to localized production shortfalls. Planting of the second season maize crop was completed by the end of September.

In northern unimodal rainfall areas, harvesting operations of the 2024 cereal crops have recently started. Near-average cumulative rainfall amounts between May and September supported crop establishment and development in most of the cereal-producing areas. However, some dry spells between late July and August affected crops in parts of the Centrale, Kara and Savanes regions. According to remote sensing data, abundant rainfall amounts since early September have improved vegetation conditions across most of the Kara Region. However, as of end-September, vegetation conditions remain stressed in some parts of the Savanes and Centrale regions, where yields are likely to be reduced. Furthermore, in parts of Savanes Region, civil insecurity has constrained farmers’ access to land, resulting in a below-average planted area.

Aggregate cereal production in 2024, including the output of the second season maize crop, to be harvested between December 2024 and January 2025, is forecast at about 1.5 million tonnes, slightly above the five‑year average, reflecting generally favourable weather conditions and the provision of agricultural inputs by the government.

Prices of key cereal staples near year-earlier levels

Retail prices of locally produced maize, the most consumed cereal in the country, increased seasonally by about 10 percent from April to August 2024, while retail prices of imported rice, the second most consumed cereal, remained stable during the same period. In August 2024, prices of both local maize and imported rice were near their year-earlier values.

About 423 000 people acutely food insecure during 2024 lean season

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, over 423 000 people (7 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2024 lean season period. This shows a slight improvement compared to the same period in 2023, when about 487 000 people (8 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance.

About 55 percent of the acutely food insecure people is located in Savanes Region, where the government has extended a state of emergency until April 2025 due to the continuing spread of violence from central Sahel to northern areas of the country. Attacks by non ‑ state armed groups have severely disrupted livelihoods and caused significant population displacement. In addition, as of August 2024, the worsening conflict in Burkina Faso has led to an influx of nearly 39 000 refugees and asylum seekers, further increasing needs in the country’s northern areas.

New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2024 are expected to be released by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in late November.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .