Reference Date: 18-August-2026

Production prospects for 2026 paddy crop uncertain

Planting of the 2026 paddy crop started on time in mid‑May, benefiting from above‑average precipitation amounts. Subsequently, dry weather conditions in June slowed planting progress and affected crop emergence in some areas. Production prospects for the 2026 paddy crop remain uncertain and will largely depend on weather conditions until the October/December harvest of the crop. Adequate rainfall amounts in coming months will be critical to support crop development. Seasonal forecasts point to high likelihood of below‑average precipitation amounts across most of the country during August and October period. If this forecast materializes, reduced soil moisture could constrain paddy crop development, with negative effects on yields.

Harvesting of the 2026 maize crop is underway and is expected to finalize in September. Production prospects are generally favourable, despite localized crop losses in some southern areas caused by dry weather conditions in June. The 2026 winter wheat crop was harvested in June and production is estimated at near average 2.1 million tonnes.

Cereal production estimated at average level in 2025

The 2025 cropping season finalized in December 2025 and the aggregate cereal production is estimated at 11.1 million tonnes, close to the five‑year average. Paddy production is officially estimated at 5.7 million tonnes, down 4.2 percent from 2024 output, due to rainfall deficits in June and July 2025 that hampered planting operations and lowered yields in key rice producing areas. The 2025 maize crop was harvested in September 2025 and production is estimated at 3.2 million tonnes, slightly above the average. Production of the 2025 wheat crop, harvested in June, is estimated at average 2.1 million tonnes.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 marketing year forecast at above‑average level

Cereal imports, mostly rice, account for about 15 percent of the national consumption needs. In the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June), cereal import requirements are forecast at 1.6 million tonnes, about 25 percent above the average. Imports of rice in the 2026 calendar year are forecast at 650 000 tonnes, up 3.2 percent from 2025, reflecting the below‑average output in 2025 and strong domestic demand. Import requirements of maize and wheat are forecast at average 550 000 tonnes and 225 000 tonnes, respectively.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .