Reference Date: 09-April-2025

Favourable prospects for 2025 wheat production

Harvesting of the 2025 wheat crop started last March in southern low-lying areas and is expected to finalize by the end of June in the northern hilly areas. Overall, production prospects for the 2025 wheat crop are generally favourable. The area planted is estimated to be above the five-year average, primarily due to sustained domestic demand. In the southern plains (locally referred to as Terai Region), which account for more than 60 percent of the total annual wheat production, cumulative rainfall amounts between October 2024 and March 2025 were generally adequate to satisfy crop water requirements, supporting yields. In the hills and mountain agroecological zones, snowfall level during the winter months was sufficient to protect crops from freezing temperatures and provide adequate soil moisture during the critical spring months. Furthermore, the timely availability of high-yielding seed varieties and an adequate supply of fertilizers are expected to contribute to increased productivity. The 2025 maize crop, expected to be harvested from August onwards, is growing under generally favourable weather conditions. The area planted is estimated to be above average, continuing the upward trend observed over the past eight consecutive years, reflecting the strong demand by the domestic feed industry. Planting of the 2025 paddy crop is expected to start in May.

Cereal production in 2024 estimated close to average

According to the preliminary findings of the 2024 FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) , aggregate cereal production in 2024 is estimated at average 11 million tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent). Favourable weather conditions, combined with a year-on-year increase in the availability of fertilizers, have largely offset localized crop losses caused by heavy rainfall and floods that occurred between July and September 2024, particularly in Bagmati, Madesh and Koshi provinces, and in several districts in central Gandaki and Lumbini.

Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 marketing year forecast at above-average level

Cereal imports, primarily rice, cover about 15 percent of national consumption needs. For the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), the country's cereal import requirements are forecast at above-average 1.7 million tonnes, driven by strong domestic demand in line with population growth and the recovery of the tourism sector following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prices of rice at higher year-on-year levels in February 2025

Rice is the main food staple in the country and accounts for about 65 percent of the total cereal consumption and 30 percent of the total daily caloric intake. Retail prices of coarse rice, the most widely consumed variety, have shown a steady upward trend throughout 2023 and 2024, reaching record or near-record levels in October 2024. The increase was primarily due to generally tight market availability following reduced cereal imports in 2023 and 2024, coupled with high production and transport costs. Although prices of coarse rice stabilized or registered seasonal declines across most markets between November 2024 and February 2025, prices remained at higher year-on-year levels.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .