Reference Date: 19-September-2025

Cereal production forecast at below‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 maize crop is ongoing and it is expected to conclude by the end of September, while the paddy harvest is scheduled to begin in mid‑October and it will finalize in December. Paddy crop production in 2025 is forecast at 5.4 million tonnes, below the average, due to a reduction in plantings caused by rainfall deficits, especially in key producing areas of Madesh Province, namely Mahottari, Dhanusa and Siraha districts. Maize crop production in 2025 is forecast at a slightly below‑average level of 3 million tonnes, mainly due to the effect of dryness on area planted and yields. Floods and landslides caused some localized crop losses in the north of the country. In drought and flood‑affected areas, production shortfalls are expected to undermine farmers’ livelihoods and exacerbate food insecurity. Production of wheat, harvested in June, is estimated at an average level of 2.1 million tonnes.

Cereal import requirements in 2025/26 marketing year forecast at above‑average levels

Cereal imports, mostly rice, account for about 15 percent of the national consumption needs. Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, about 20 percent above the average. Imports of rice in the 2026 calendar year are forecast at 920 000 tonnes. Import requirements of maize and wheat are forecast at an average level of 550 000 tonnes and 225 000 tonnes, respectively.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .