Reference Date: 22-November-2024

Cereal production in 2024 forecast at above-average level

Harvesting operations of 2024 cereal crops are underway and will conclude by November. The rainy season, which normally extends from June to September, generally had a timely and favourable start. In some parts of the country, in particular in the regions of Dosso and Tillabéri, early season dryness resulted in germination failures and some replanting was required. Abundant rainfall amounts between July and September favoured crop establishment and development across the country, boosting yields. However, heavy rains triggered flooding, which resulted in localized crop losses, in particular in Zinder Region. Furthermore, civil insecurity continued to undermine farmers’ productive capacity in some areas, especially in Tillabéri Region, resulting in localized production shortfalls.

Aggregate cereal production in 2024 is forecast at 5.7 million tonnes, about 12 percent above the average of the previous five years, reflecting generally favourable weather conditions and timely distribution of free seeds and subsidized fertilizers by the government.

Prices of coarse grains above year-earlier levels

Wholesale prices of locally produced sorghum and millet, the most consumed cereals in the country, increased by 40 to 70 percent from March to September 2024. In October 2024, reflecting improved supply from the ongoing harvest, prices of sorghum and millet declined up to 15 and 25 percent, respectively, compared to the previous month, but remained well above the level of one year before. The high prices of coarse grains were supported by the reduction in cereal imports due to the closure of the border with Benin, as well as by market disruptions due to floods and conflict.

Widespread flooding exacerbates already critical levels of acute food insecurity

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 3.4 million people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2024 lean season period, including 126 000 people in Emergency (CH Phase 4). This shows a slight increase in the number of acutely food insecure people compared to the same period in 2023, when about 3.3 million people were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. However, the actual number of acutely food insecure people in 2024 is likely to be higher than the projected figure due to the disruption of livelihoods and markets caused by recent floods, which affected about 1.5 million people across the country, and the high prices of key staple food.

Conflict remains the key driver of acute food insecurity in the country, particularly in the regions of Tillabéri, Diffa, northwestern Tahoua and southwestern Maradi, with the number of violent events by non-state armed groups increasing in the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The already high number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in these conflict-affected regions has increased due to recent flooding, exacerbating acute food insecurity among vulnerable displaced people and host households. In July 2024, the total number of IDPs rose by 25 percent from the previous month. In October 2024, the number of IDPs was estimated at 507 500, a 50 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Over 75 percent of the IDPs is located in Tillabéri and Diffa regions.

New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2024 are expected to be released by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in December 2024.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .