Reference Date: 28-August-2026

Generally favourable start of the 2026 cropping season

Planting operations of the 2026 maize, millet and rice crops were completed in July, while planting of the 2026 sorghum crop concluded in early August. In most cereal‑producing areas, the rainy season, which typically extends from June to September, began on time or earlier than usual, with advances of up to three weeks recorded in several locations. Near- to above‑average cumulative precipitation amounts through early August 2026 supported planting operations and early crop development. However, in parts of the Tillabéri, Tahoua and Zinder regions, early‑season dryness affected crop establishment, requiring replanting in some areas.

According to the latest seasonal weather forecast update by the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre for West Africa and the Sahel (AGRHYMET RCC-WAS) , near- to above‑average cumulative rainfall amounts are expected between August and October 2026 across most producing areas, likely supporting crop development but also increasing the risk of localized flooding.

To improve farmers’ access to agricultural inputs, the government distributed millet seeds and increased the availability of subsidized fertilizers in May and June 2026, in response to elevated input prices due to international market disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Civil insecurity continues to constrain farmers’ access to their fields, especially in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions, likely resulting in localized production shortfalls.

Cereal output in 2025 estimated at near‑average level

Aggregate cereal production in 2025 is officially estimated at about 5.3 million tonnes, close to the average of the previous five years. Early‑season dryness disrupted planting operations and required replanting in several parts of the country. However, weather conditions improved later in the season and supported crop development in most producing areas. Civil insecurity continued to disrupt agricultural activities, especially in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions, resulting in localized production shortfalls. Floods and hailstorms also caused minor crop losses.

Prices of cereals below year‑earlier levels in July 2026

Wholesale prices of locally produced millet and sorghum rose by up to 25 and 40 percent, respectively, between May and July 2026 in most monitored markets, amid the seasonal decline in household and producer stocks and increased market demand during the lean season. Despite these substantial increases, in July 2026, millet prices were 5 to 25 percent below their year‑earlier levels, while those of sorghum were 10 to 30 percent lower year‑on‑year. These relatively low price levels reflect improved domestic market supply, supported by the ban on cereal exports to countries outside the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), in place since October 2024, as well as government‑subsidized sales of cereals from public stocks.

About 2.4 million people estimated to face severe acute food insecurity between June and August 2026

According to the latest available Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis , about 2.42 million people (9 percent of the analysed population) are estimated to face severe acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2026 lean season, including over 18 600 people in Emergency (CH Phase 4). This is slightly above the 2.22 million people (8 percent of the analysed population) estimated to be in CH Phase 3 and above during the same period in 2025.

Civil insecurity remains the main driver of acute food insecurity, particularly in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions, where about 20 percent of the analysed population is estimated to be in CH Phase 3 (Crisis) and above, representing the highest prevalence nationwide. Successive years of restricted access to fields and pastures, agricultural production shortfalls and trade disruptions have constrained food availability in conflict‑affected areas and contributed to food prices remaining higher in local markets than in other parts of the country, while limited income‑earning opportunities continue to weaken households’ purchasing power. Attacks by non‑state armed groups continue to drive population displacement, with over 548 000 people internally displaced as of July 2026, about 20 percent more than a year earlier. In addition, the country hosts about 456 000 refugees and asylum seekers, mostly from Nigeria, Mali and Burkina Faso. About 85 percent of all forcibly displaced people are concentrated in the Tillabéri, Diffa and Tahoua regions, increasing pressure on local livelihoods and markets, while humanitarian assistance remains constrained by funding shortfalls.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Cadre Harmonisé (CH) https://www.cadreharmonise.org/ .