Reference Date: 30-January-2026

Cereal production in 2025 forecast at above‑average level

Harvesting operations of the 2025 rainfed coarse grain and first rice crops were completed in November 2025, while harvesting of the second rice crop, grown under irrigation in the regions of Dosso and Tillabéri, is underway and will conclude by the end of January 2026. The rainy season, which usually extends from June to September, was characterized by a mixed start. In several areas, early season dryness in June affected planting operations and crop establishment, requiring some replanting. However, weather conditions improved in July, with above‑average cumulative precipitation amounts through September boosting yields across the country. Minor crop losses occurred in localized areas from flooding in August and September, as well as from hailstorms and pest outbreaks.

Civil insecurity continued to limit farmers’ access to their fields in 2025, particularly in the regions of Tillabéri and Diffa, resulting in localized production shortfalls.

The 2025 aggregate cereal production is forecast at about 5.9 million tonnes, approximately 13 percent above the average of the previous five years.

Prices of cereals below year-earlier levels in December 2025

Wholesale prices of locally produced millet and sorghum declined by 15-35 percent between August and December 2025 in most monitored markets, while wholesale prices of imported rice decreased by up to 15 percent during the same period. Prices of local millet and sorghum and of imported rice were below their year‑earlier values in December 2025. The year‑on‑year declines were supported by improved domestic supply following destocking by traders, commercialization of newly harvested crops and a ban on cereal exports to countries outside the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), in place since October 2024.

About 1.86 million people acutely food insecure in last quarter of 2025

According to the latest available Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 1.86 million people (7 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to be acutely food insecure (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October and December 2025, including over 14 500 people in Emergency (CH Phase 4). This is slightly above the 1.53 million people (6 percent of the analysed population) estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance during the same period in 2024.

Conflict remains a key driver of acute food insecurity. In the last quarter of 2025, violent events increased year‑on‑year in Tillabéri, Dosso and Diffa regions, and also continued to be reported in Tahoua and Maradi regions. Civil insecurity disrupted livelihoods and markets and caused the internal displacement of nearly 460 000 people as of December 2025, while the country also hosts about 436 000 refugees and asylum seekers. The presence of these forcibly displaced populations, about 85 percent of whom are located in the regions of Tillabéri, Diffa and Tahoua, has exerted pressure on food stocks and livelihoods, exacerbating food insecurity in host communities.

Flooding in 2025 affected the livelihoods of about 474 000 people across the country, raising in particular the humanitarian needs of households in conflict‑affected areas. Meanwhile, the delivery of humanitarian assistance has been hampered by access constraints, high operational costs and funding shortfalls.

Early CH projections indicate that about 2.42 million people are expected to be acutely food insecure during the 2026 June to August lean season, including over 18 600 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). Updated projections for this period, along with estimates for March to May 2026, are expected to be released in March 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Cadre Harmonisé (CH) https://www.cadreharmonise.org/ .