Reference Date: 20-February-2026

Paddy production forecast at average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025/26 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the total annual output, finalized last December and production is estimated to be close to the five-year average. Despite high domestic prices at planting time, sowings are estimated to be close to average, primarily reflecting restricted access to fields and markets due to the ongoing conflict in northern parts of the country, high cost of agricultural inputs and conflict-related marketing constraints. The June to October monsoon season began on time in early June and precipitation amounts were average to above average until October across the main rice-producing southern provinces, supporting satisfactory development of crops. The 2025/26 secondary paddy crop, which accounts for about 20 percent of the total annual output, is currently at vegetative to early reproductive stages of development and it is generally in favourable growing conditions. Aggregate 2025/25 paddy production is forecast at 27.9 million tonnes, consistent with the 2020-2024 average. Harvesting of the 2025 second season maize crop is underway and is expected to finalize in April, while the main season maize crop was harvested last December. Aggregate maize production is preliminarily forecast at an average level of 2.1 million tonnes.

Average cereal exports forecast in 2025/26 marketing year

Total cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at an average level of 3.6 million tonnes, including 1.5 million tonnes of maize. Rice exports in calendar 2026 are forecast at 2.1 million tonnes, down 14 percent from 2025.

Prices of rice declined throughout 2025

Retail prices of Emata rice declined steadily between January 2025 and January 2026, reflecting increased market availability following the commercialization of the 2024/25 harvests and, more recently, the 2025/26 main harvest. As of January 2026, prices of rice were about 10 percent below their elevated levels of a year earlier.

Critical food insecurity conditions due to multiple shocks

According to the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan published in December 2025, about 8.5 million people, representing about 15 percent of the total population, were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity in 2026.The high level of food insecurity is due to multiple shocks, including the lingering effects of the powerful 7.7 moment magnitude (Mw) earthquake, which in March 2025 caused widespread devastation in central parts of the country, with losses of lives, large-scale displacement and severe disruption of livelihoods. The earthquake also caused extensive damage to critical infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, roads and bridges, especially in densely populated regions of Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway as well as in Bago and Shan states. High levels of acute food insecurity are also due to the protracted conflict that began in early 2021 and intensified in late 2023 as well as due to the significant reduction in humanitarian funding, especially since early 2025. Flooding in Mon, Rakhine, Chin Kacin and Ayeyarwady has significantly reduced food availability, access and utilization. As of late January 2026, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) was estimated at record of 3.7 million , mostly located in Sagaing Region and Rakhine State. In addition, about 1.3 million displaced Myanmar nationals are residing Bangladesh, mainly in Cox’s Bazar District, relying heavily on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .