Reference Date: 05-September-2025

Critical food insecurity conditions due to multiple shocks

According to the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan Flash Addendum issued in April 2025, about 16.7 million people, representing almost 30 percent of the total population, were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity between June and August 2025, up from 13.3 million people during the same period in 2024. The deterioration is due to the effects of multiple shocks, including the decreased funding for humanitarian assistance and the powerful 7.7 Mw magnitude earthquake in March 2025, which caused widespread devastation in central parts of the country, with losses of lives, large‑scale displacement and severe disruption of livelihoods. More than 3.7 million hectares of cropland in the key agricultural areas were affected, severely disrupting food production. The earthquake also caused extensive damage to critical infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, roads and bridges, especially in the densely populated regions of Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway as well as in Bago and Shan states. High levels of acute food insecurity are also due to the conflict that began in early 2021 and intensified in late 2023, as well as persistently high food prices. As of early‑September, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) was estimated at 3.6 million people. In addition, about 1.5 million Myanmar refugees and asylum seekers reside in neighbouring countries, mostly in Cox’s Bazar District in Bangladesh. Since the pre‑monsoon season in late May 2025, rains and river overflows have caused repeated flooding across several regions and states, submerging farmland, destroying crops, killing livestock and causing severe livelihood losses for people already affected by conflict, with some areas hit by flooding repeatedly.

Aggregate paddy production forecast slightly above‑average in 2025

Planting of the 2025 main season paddy and maize crops finalized at the end of August and harvesting is expected to start from October onwards. Despite high domestic prices, the area planted with paddy and maize is estimated close to average, primarily reflecting restricted access to fields due to the ongoing conflict in northern regions, input costs and marketing challenges. The June to October monsoon season began on time in early June and precipitation amounts were average to above average until mid‑August across the main rice producing southern provinces, supporting crop establishment and early development. As of mid‑August 2025, remote sensing data indicated good vegetation conditions in most cropping areas, with no evidence of drought (ASI map). Planting of the 2025 second season maize crop is expected to start from mid‑September, while planting of the second season paddy crop will begin in November. Overall, the 2025 aggregate paddy production is forecast at 28.2 million tonnes, 2 percent above the five‑year average, while aggregate maize production is preliminary forecast at average 2.1 million tonnes.

The 2024 cropping season finalized last June and the aggregate cereal crop production is estimated at average 30.1 million tonnes.

Rice exports in 2025 forecast to decline year‑on‑year

Rice exports in calendar year 2025 are forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, down 14.5 percent from exports in 2024. Maize exports in 2025/26 marketing year are forecast at 1.5 million tonnes. Overall, total cereal exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at average 3.6 million tonnes.

Prices of rice at high levels in July 2025

Retail prices of Emata rice, the most consumed type of rice, declined slightly between January and May 2025, reflecting the commercialization of the 2024 harvest. In June and July 2025, prices remained generally stable, close to the elevated levels of a year earlier, driven by the elevated cost of agricultural inputs and transport as well as the market disruptions stemming from the conflict and the recent earthquake.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .