Reference Date: 14-July-2026

Below‑average cereal production forecast in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat, started in July and is expected to conclude in August, while planting of the 2026 spring maize crop, to be harvested from October, took place in May. Planting of other spring cereals, mainly barley, finished in June and the harvest is expected to take place between August and September.

The 2026 wheat output is tentatively forecast at about 1.5 million tonnes, nearly 10 percent above the five-year average level, reflecting favourable weather conditions during the growing season that are expected to support above-average yields. By contrast, the 2026 output of maize is preliminarily forecast at about 877 000 tonnes, nearly 30 percent below the average level, reflecting a reduced planted area and the adverse impact of high temperatures and low rainfall amounts between May and June 2026, which constrained crop development and depressed yields, particularly in the main producing areas of central and southern regions.

The total 2026 cereal output is forecast at about 2.6 million tonnes, 10 percent below the five‑year average level.

Total cereal exports in 2026/27 forecast below average

Total cereal exports in the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 1.2 million tonnes, about 15 percent below the five‑year average, reflecting reduced exportable surpluses following the below‑average maize production harvested in 2026. Although wheat exports are expected to increase following the favourable 2026 harvest, reduced maize exportable supplies are expected to constrain total cereal exports in 2026/27, keeping them below the five‑year average.

Prices of wheat flour near the previous year’s level as of May 2026

According to the National Bank of Moldova (NBM), annual inflation rate declined from 7.9 percent in 2025 to 6.8 percent in 2026, largely driven by domestic macroeconomic developments that contributed to easing price pressures.

The national average retail prices of wheat flour were generally stable between March and November 2025, but increased steadily thereafter and, by May 2026, were up to 5 percent above year‑earlier levels, reflecting elevated inputs costs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .