Reference Date: 08-August-2024

Cereal production estimated at a near‑average level in 2024

Total 2024 cereal output is estimated at 2.9 million tonnes, close to the five-year average level.

The low production forecast is mainly due to expectations of a reduced maize output, pegged at 1.2 million tonnes in 2024, about 23 percent below the five‑year average. The poor production prospects for the maize crop, with harvesting to begin in October, reflect high temperatures and low rainfall amounts from May to July 2024 which affected crops in the main producing regions, particularly in the central and southern parts of the country.

By contrast, production from the 2024 winter wheat crop, with harvesting almost complete, is forecast at 1.4 million tonnes, about 27 percent above the five‑year average, but moderately down from the near‑record harvest of 2023. The small year‑on‑year decline reflects the slightly less favourable weather during the planting period from September to November 2023 and between March and May 2024 when crops were reaching maturity. This led to an estimated 7 percent drop in wheat yields in 2024 compared to the exceptionally high levels of 2023.

Total cereal exports in 2024/25 forecast to fall below average

Total cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at almost 1 million tonnes, about 28 percent below the five‑year average, principally due to prospects of a below‑average maize production that is estimated to be only sufficient to meet domestic needs and curb export opportunities. The cereal export forecast is comprised of 250 000 tonnes of maize and 700 000 tonnes of wheat.

Wheat flour prices trending downward since mid‑2023

The national average retail price of wheat flour decreased by 3 percent month‑on‑month in June 2024 and was 9 percent below the previous year’s level, largely owing to lower year‑on‑year international prices and adequate domestic availability. The national average retail price of potatoes, another key staple food, increased in June 2024 for the second consecutive month, but remained 14 percent below the previous year’s levels.

Moderate GDP growth in first quater of 2024

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Gross Domestic (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 1.4 percent compared to the same period of 2023 and by 2.5 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, mainly underpinned by growth in the service and energy sectors.

According to the latest General Population Needs and Vulnerability Assessment (GPS), and based on the Food Consumption Indicator, nearly 19 percent of respondents were identified as experiencing food insecurity, either moderate or severe levels. As of 7 July 2024, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR),123 297 refugees from Ukraine are recorded in the country.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .