Reference Date: 20-June-2024

Near‑average domestic crop production forecast for 2024

Harvesting of 2024 winter crops was completed at earlier stages and was nearing completion by the end of May. The above‑average temperatures in March shortened crop growth development. Production is estimated at 207 000 tonnes, near the average and similar to the previous year.

Agricultural production is principally constrained by the landscape, only about 12 percent of the total area of 15.4 million hectares is arable. Wheat and barley, the major cereals grown in the country, are cultivated in coastal regions and in the arid southern areas. The main source of fresh water for agricultural activities is ground water, which is, however, exposed to climate change and over exploitation. In northern regions, rainfed production or cropping with supplementary irrigation is possible. In central and southern regions, agriculture fully relies on irrigation from non‑renewable ground water basins. Low levels of annual precipitation amounts, contamination of aquifers by sea water and over‑extraction, coupled with inefficient use of irrigation systems, may lead to depletion of non‑renewable ground water resources for agricultural production.

Erratic and below‑average rainfall, coupled with high temperatures, affected winter crop development in the cereal‑producing areas located in northwestern coastline regions where the yields of the 2024 winter crops are forecast at below‑average levels. In eastern regions along the coast, despite below‑average cumulative rainfall amounts, adequate supply of irrigation water sustained crop growth from January onwards and production is expected to be at near‑average levels. In southern areas, earth observation indicators suggest above‑average vegetation conditions. At national level, production of 2024 winter cereals is forecast at near–average levels.

Average cereal imports in 2023/24

The country is a net exporter of hydrocarbons and oil revenues are used to cover domestic food requirements through imports. The largest majority of consumption requirements such as wheat for human consumption and barley for feed use are covered by imports (up to 90 percent).

For the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), imports are estimated at 3.1 million tonnes, about the same as in the previous year and close to the average. The Russian Federation remains the major source of wheat imports, followed by Turkey and Romania.

Annual food inflation remains low

Between December 2020 and October 2023, the official exchange rate set by the Central Bank was LYD 4.8/USD 1 and the parallel market followed the same trend. From October 2023, restrictions to access foreign currency at the official exchange rate to safeguard reserves widened the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market causing liquidity shortage. To adjust the Libyan dinar’s exchange rate and diminish the gap between the official and parallel market, the Central Bank of Libya announced the introduction of a temporary 27 percent fee on foreign exchange rates in March 2024 to reduce the current exchange rate to a range between LYD 5.95/USD 1 and LYD 6.15/USD 1.

The devaluation of the Libyan dinar may have implications on the affordability of basic food items because of the high dependence on food imports. The annual food inflation rate remains low registering a 2.16 percent increase year‑on‑year in March 2024.

According to the 2024 Global Humanitarian Overview, about 250 000 people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2024, down from the 300 000 people in 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .