Reference Date: 13-October-2025

Floods in December 2024 undermine 2025 winter cereal production

Winter cereal harvest was completed by June 2025, while the spring millet harvest concluded in August. Total cereal production is estimated at 160 000 tonnes, about 20 percent below the five‑year average, largely driven by adverse weather conditions, which affected yields of winter cereals. In key producing regions of the northwest, heavy rainfall in December 2024 caused floods and severely damaged crops. Similarly, in northeastern provinces of Al Fatah and Benghazi, early season floods affected crops in some areas. According to FAO remote sensing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), vegetation conditions as of April 2025 infer likely unfavourable crop prospects. In addition, the 2025 cereal output was undermined by localized conflicts which disrupted agricultural activities and by limited farmers’ access to inputs due to their high prices.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025/26

Cereal import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are preliminarily forecast at 3.2 million tonnes, about 6 percent above the average. Wheat imports, which account for a large portion of total cereal imports, are forecast at 1.5 million tonnes, about 12 percent above the average. The country’s capacity to import is highly driven by the availability of foreign currency derived from oil exports.

Food inflation increased in 2025

According to the Bureau of Statistics and Census , in early 2025, the base year for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was updated from 2008 to 2024. With the new reference year, the annual food inflation rate in August 2025 stood at 3.1 percent, gradually increasing from 2 percent in January 2025.

Refugee inflows remain high in 2025

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) , as of June 2025, about 313 000 Sudanese refugees have arrived in the country since April 2023 and their number is projected to reach 550 000 by the end of 2025. Continuous humanitarian aid, including water, food, shelter and health, will be required to support the increasing number of refugees in the country.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .