Reference Date: 12-September-2025

Paddy production forecast at below‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 paddy crop, the country’s main cereal, started in mid‑September, about one to two weeks later than usual,due to delayed transplanting caused by reduced sunlight and low temperatures last May, and will finalize in November. The total area planted, which has gradually declined since 2002, is estimated below the five‑year average, as the government promotes the cultivation of alternative crops, including soybean, in response to decreasing demand of rice for food use. According to remote sensing data, as of early August 2025, just before the harvest period, crop vegetation conditions were favourable, with no evidence of drought (see ASI map). The 2025 paddy production is preliminary forecast at 4.6 million tonnes, about 6 percent below the average.

Harvesting of the 2025 maize crop is underway and it is expected to conclude in early October, with production forecast close to the five‑year average. Harvesting of the 2025 mostly irrigated wheat and barley crops finalized last June and production of both crops is estimated well below the average. The low outputs mainly reflect a contraction in plantings due to excessive soil moisture at sowing time caused by heavy rains last October and November, especially in southern areas where about 40 percent of wheat and 85 percent of barley are grown. In addition, frost episodes in February and March 2025 caused some localized crops losses and reduced wheat grain quality in some areas.

Cereal import requirements in 2025/26 marketing year forecast slightly above‑average

Total cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at slightly above average 16.9 million tonnes. Imports of maize, that account for the largest share of the total cereal imports, are projected at average 11.5 million tonnes. Wheat imports are forecast at 4.5 million tonnes, about 6 percent above the average, reflecting the strong demand for high‑quality wheat for milling. In calendar year 2025, imports of rice are forecast at 590 000 tonnes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .