Reference Date: 16-March-2026

Favourable production prospects for 2026 wheat and barley crops

Planting of the 2026 wheat and barley crops, mostly irrigated, finalized last November and harvesting is expected to start next June. Weather conditions between October 2025 and February 2026 were generally favourable, facilitating sowing operations and supporting satisfactory crop germination and establishment. According to satellite imagery, snow cover during the winter months, from December 2025 to February 2026, was generally sufficient in the main producing areas, providing an adequate protection to dormant crops against freezing temperatures. Crops broke dormancy and resumed growth in late February under generally adequate soil moisture conditions, mainly resulting from snowmelt. The area planted with wheat and barley is estimated to be above the five-year average, supported by government incentives, including a remunerative procurement price and direct payments to wheat and barley producers.

Paddy production estimated at below-average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 paddy crop, the country’s main cereal, finalized last November, about two weeks later than usual, due to a delay of transplanting operations following reduced sunlight and low temperatures in May 2025. Total area planted is officially estimated below the five-year average, as the government continues to promote the cultivation of alternative crops, in response to the decreasing demand of rice for food use. Weather conditions during the cropping season were generally favourable and, according to remote sensing data, as of early September 2025, just before the harvest period, no evidence of drought was visible (ASI map). In September and early October 2025, unseasonal heavy rains in western main producing provinces hampered harvesting operations and affected grain quality in some areas. Overall, production of paddy in 2025 is estimated at 4.7 million tonnes, about 4 percent below the five-year average. Harvesting of the 2025 maize crop finalized last October and production is forecast to be close to the five-year average. Harvesting of the 2025 wheat and barley crops finalized last June and production of both crops is estimated well below the average. The low outputs mainly reflect a contraction in plantings due to excessive soil moisture at sowing time caused by heavy rains in October and November 2024, especially in southern areas where about 40 percent of wheat and 85 percent of barley crops are grown. In addition, frost episodes in February and March 2025 caused some localized crops losses and reduced the quality of wheat grain in some areas.

Cereal import requirements in 2025/26 marketing year forecast slightly above average

Total cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a slightly above-average level of 17 million tonnes. Imports of maize, that account for the largest share of the total cereal imports, are projected at 11.7 million tonnes, slightly above average, driven by the steady demand of the domestic feed industry, amid rising livestock numbers. Wheat imports are forecast at an average level of 4.6 million tonnes. In calendar year 2026, imports of rice are forecast at 500 000 tonnes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .