Reference Date: 14-October-2024

Maize output in 2024 anticipated at above-average level due to large plantings

Harvesting of the 2024 main season maize crop is about to be concluded and production is estimated at an above-average level, due to an expansion of the area sown. Planting operations, that typically start in May, were delayed by dry weather conditions and elevated temperatures in the key producing central and eastern departments. In June, excessive rainfall amounts continued hampering maize plantings across the country, but favourable weather conditions in July restored adequate soil moisture levels and favoured crop development.

Planting of the 2024 Postrera minor season maize crop started in August, amid below-average precipitation amounts in the key producing departments of Olancho and Santa Barbara. Weather forecasts point to above-average precipitation amounts associated with La Niña phenomenon in the October-to-December period, that coincides with the grain filling and maturation stages. If excessive rains materialize, they could hamper fieldwork and reduce prospects for yields.

In May 2024, the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) started the implementation of the Bono Tecnológico Productivo, a programme that supports the production capacity of about 400 000 smallholder farmers with less than 3.5 hectares of land with the distribution of improved maize seeds, fertilizers and other plant protection products, with a total budget of HNL 1 billion (about USD 40 million).

Cereal import requirements forecast at high levels in 2024/25 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (September/August) are forecast at an above-average level of 1.35 million tonnes. The high needs reflect the increasing consumption of wheat and rice in line with population growth and sustained demand for yellow maize by the feed industry.

Maize prices increased in August 2024 due to late start of main harvest

Prices of white maize decreased month-on-month in September, reflecting improved supply from the 2024 main season crop harvest. As of September 2024, prices were about 15 percent below their value one year ago, mainly due to the large market availability from the 2023 bumper harvest. Rice prices were nearly steady over the year, reflecting adequate market supply and stable imports. Prices of red beans have decreased in August 2024 due to improved availability from the start of the main season harvest and were slightly higher than the previous year.

High levels of acute food insecurity to persist in 2024

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the population facing acute food insecurity (classified under IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) was projected at 1.93 million people (19 percent of the analysed population) during the lean season in the June to August 2024 period, lower compared to the 2.42 million people a year before, reflecting increased cereal supply from higher production and imports. The persistent level of food insecurity is due to the high level of food prices during the 2024 lean season. Low income and high unemployment rate in the country also contribute to reduce the purchasing power of the poorest households, thus increasing food insecurity.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .