Reference Date: 07-October-2026

El Niño‑related drought conditions curtail Primera and Postrera maize outcome

The harvest of 2026 Primera season maize crop, which accounts for about 70 percent of the annual production, is ongoing and output is anticipated at a well below-average level. Severe drought conditions associated with El Niño phenomenon resulted in widespread soil moisture deficits, constraining plantings and adversely affecting crop development across the country. The most severe impact was reported in the southern Dry Corridor departments (VHI map), where significant crop losses affected smallholder farmers. In addition, rising prices of fuel and fertilizers, associated with the Middle East conflict, increased production costs and further discouraging maize sowings.

Planting of 2026 Postrera season maize crop began in September. Although average to above‑average precipitation amounts in central regions in mid‑September partially eased soil moisture deficits, cumulative rainfall amounts remained insufficient to provide conducive conditions for planting, and the area sown is anticipated to be below average. Forecast of persistent El Niño‑related rainfall deficits and above‑average temperatures during the last quarter of the year are expected to adversely affect crop development and constrain the Postrera maize outturn. Consequently, the aggregate maize production in 2026 is forecast at a below‑average level.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 forecast above average, reflecting production shortfalls

Cereal imports in the 2025/26 marketing year (September/August) are estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, almost 30 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting the drought‑driven contraction in domestic production against a sustained demand of maize from the feeding industry. Also, wheat imports in 2025/26 are estimated to be 20 percent above the five‑year average, led by the strong domestic and urban demand for private consumption, in line with growing population.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 are anticipated to remain above average, offsetting production shortfalls from the negative impact of El Niño phenomenon on 2026 Primera and Postrera season harvests.

Prices of white maize and red beans higher year‑on‑year

Wholesale prices of white maize increased steadily between January and July 2026, driven by concerns over the impact of dry weather conditions on the 2026 harvest, compounded by rising production costs associated with high fuel and fertilizer prices. In July 2026, prices were about 20 percent above their year‑earlier level. After declining in May and June, prices of red beans increased by 16 percent month‑on‑month in July across monitored markets, reflecting tight seasonal supply ahead of the start of the harvest in August. Prices of second‑quality rice declined by about 4 percent between May and June 2026 following the government’s authorization of a zero ‑ tariff import quota of 60 000 tonnes until the end of the year. Prices recovered in July, supported by concerns over the impact of rainfall deficits on 2026 harvest. However, rice prices remained broadly unchanged on a year‑on‑year basis, reflecting a generally stable market supply.

El Niño to increase the number of people facing acute food insecurity

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 1.88 million people (18 percent of the analysed population) are projected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between August and October 2026, up from 1.62 million people (17 percent of the analysed population) during the corresponding period in 2025. The year‑on‑year deterioration is largely due to the adverse impact of El Niño phenomenon on agricultural production during the Primera season, particularly among subsistence farmers in several departments of the Dry Corridor. In addition, limited income‑generating opportunities and rising prices of food and agricultural inputs have significantly eroded the purchasing power of vulnerable households, exacerbating food insecurity amid dwindling food stocks.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .