Reference Date: 25-September-2024

Main maize season output in 2024 below average due to reduced sowings and adverse weather conditions

The main 2024 maize crop harvest was concluded in July and production is estimated to be below average level, as low maize prices at the end of last year induced farmers to reduce plantings. Low precipitation amounts between March and August 2024 negatively affected yields of crops in the main producing provinces of Manabi, Los Rios and Guayas. Output estimates for the main 2024 paddy crop harvested between April and June 2024 are above average, rebounding from the low outturn obtained in 2023 due to floods. The high import demand from Colombia explains the expansion of the sown area with paddy in the main producing coastal region.

Harvesting operations of the 2024 minor summer maize crop are currently underway, while the harvest of the 2024 minor paddy crop will start in October. Low precipitation amounts in the planting phase from June to August have been generating shortage of irrigation water in the highlands during the flowering and grain-filling stages of crops, with an expected negative impact on yields.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25 marketing year

Cereal import requirements are forecast at an above average 1.67 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June). The high import needs mainly reflect strong domestic demand for wheat for food and feed use, especially by shrimp and poultry farming. The shrimp sector, one of the main non-oil exporting sectors in the country, is expected to resume its growth in 2024/25 after a contraction in the previous year due to low international prices and increased production costs.

Rice, wheat and maize prices overall steady in first half of 2024

Rice prices have been overall stable since the beginning of 2024 and reached the previous year’s level in August, reflecting adequate availability on markets, after the government suspended duties on rice shipments from Uruguay from July to September 2023, importing unprecedented amounts of rice (above 17 000 tonnes) in the second half of 2023 to balance out the low output caused by excessive rains.

Prices of wheat flour were overall stable in the March to July period reflecting stable import supply, but rose by around 6 percent in August 2024. Similarly, yellow maize prices were mostly steady for the first half of the year and slightly increased in August 2024, following upward pressures from the below-average harvest of the main crop. Yellow maize prices remained about 20 percent lower than the previous year’s level, reflecting lower year-on-year international prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .