Reference Date: 17-December-2025

Maize and rice production estimated at above-average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 second season maize crop was completed in November. Aggregate maize production in 2025 is expected at an above-average level, reflecting an expansion of the area planted with the main crop, harvested between May and July 2025, due to high prices at planting time, in combination with adequate temperatures and sunlight that favoured yields.

The 2025 minor paddy crop has also been recently harvested and the aggregate 2025 output, including the main season crop harvested between April and June, is estimated to be above average due to large plantings, reflecting high domestic demand. However, the 2025 production and area sown are lower than in 2024, when a bumper harvest was attained. Yields are estimated at an average level, as well as above-average precipitation amounts in April which hampered harvesting operations in key producing provinces of Guayas and Los Ríos. However, abundant rainfall improved the availability of irrigation water for the minor season paddy crop, which is entirely grown in irrigation.

Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average rainfall amounts between December 2025 and February 2026, with positive effects on plantings, establishment and early development of the 2026 main season maize and paddy crops.

Cereal import requirements forecast at high levels in 2025/26

Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, over 30 percent above the average. High import requirements mainly reflect growing domestic demand of wheat for human consumption and for feed use, especially by shrimp farming. Maize imports are forecast at a below-average level in 2025/26 due to the bumper domestic production harvested in 2025.

Cereal prices lower year-on-year in October 2025

Prices of yellow maize were stable between August and October 2025, reflecting an adequate market supply. As of October, prices were 10 percent below their year-earlier levels, due to the above-average production harvested in 2025.

Prices of rice mostly declined throughout the first ten months of 2025 as a result of ample supply from the 2024 and 2025 domestic outputs and, in October 2025, they were about 5 percent lower year-on-year.

Prices of wheat flour were stable during the first half of 2025. Then they declined between July and October and were below their year-earlier levels due to larger year-on-year imports.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .