Reference Date: 03-July-2024

Well below-average paddy output estimated in 2023

The 2023 paddy harvest was completed in May 2024 and production sharply declined for the second consecutive year following the government’s decision in August 2022 to eliminate reference prices on rice and reduce tariffs on rice imports which discouraged farmers’ sowing. The 2023 paddy output is estimated at 70 000 tonnes, about 50 percent below the five-year average.

Main paddy plantings forecast to remain at a below‑average level in 2024

Planting operations of the 2024 main season paddy crop are ongoing. In early June 2024, the Appeals Court overturned the suspension of the reduction of tariffs on imported rice ruled by the Administrative Court in April 2024. The continued implementation of reduced import tariffs is expected to keep planted area at a well below-average level. According to the satellite imagery, crop conditions were slightly below average in the main producing province of Guanacaste and average in the second key producing province of Puntarenas (see VHI map). Rainfall amounts were above average in June, and weather forecasts point to a continuation of above-average precipitation amounts in the July-September period over Guanacaste province, providing conducive conditions for crop development. However, excessive precipitation, in combination with elevated temperatures, could foster pest infestation and reduce crop yields. Average rainfall amounts are forecast elsewhere between July and September, boosting yield expectations, especially in Puntarenas province, where paddy crops are entirely rainfed.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at above‑average 1.5 million tonnes, mainly reflecting the sustained demand for yellow maize by the domestic feed sector as well as wheat and rice for human consumption.

Prices of rice slightly higher year‑on‑year in May 2024

Retail prices of rice rose between December 2023 and April 2024. In May, prices weakened and were only slightly above their year-earlier levels, as the sharp decline in domestic production was partially offset by abundant stocks from large imports in 2023, which were more than 50 percent above the five-year average.

Prices of black beans declined between March and May 2024, and were 7 percent down from a year earlier in May, reflecting large imports in 2023 and early 2024.

Prices of food items have been decreasing since July 2023, with the annual food inflation rate recording a negative value for the eleventh consecutive month in May 2024, supported by strengthening of the national currency.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .