Reference Date: 09-July-2026

Plantings of 2026 main season crop below average due to low prices and high production costs

Sowing of the 2026 main season paddy crop, which accounts for about 60 percent of the annual output, is underway. Planted area is estimated below the average, reflecting reduced paddy profitability from lower year‑on‑year domestic prices and more convenient imports. The strong appreciation trend of the Costa Rican colón against the United States dollar between February and June 2026, compounded by declining international quotations, further pressured domestic prices down. In addition, rising prices of fuel and fertilizer, associated to the Middle East conflict, boosted production costs, further discouraging plantings.

Weather forecasts indicate a high likelihood of El Niño‑associated dry weather conditions during the third quarter of the year expected to impair crop development and curb yields, particularly in main cropping Chorotega and Brunca regions, where crops are mostly rainfed.

El Niño-related dryness is expected to hamper planting operations from October onwards of the mainly irrigated 2026 minor season paddy crop. Prospects of dry weather are likely to reduce the availability of water in irrigation reservoirs, thus hampering planting operations.

Paddy production estimated below average in 2025

The harvest of the 2025 minor paddy season finalized last April and the output is anticipated at below average level, reflecting low plantings. Overall, the aggregate 2025 paddy production is estimated at below average, continuing the declining trend that started in 2022 when the ruta del arroz reform removed reference prices and reduced import tariffs on rice, curtailing profitability of paddy domestic production and boosting import demand.

Cereal import requirements estimated about 25 percent above average in 2025/26

Imports of cereals account for about 90 percent of the total cereal utilization. Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at 1.76 million tonnes, about 25 percent above the five-year average. High demand by the feeding sector boosted imports of yellow maize to 1.2 million tonnes, almost 30 percent higher than average. Imports of rice and wheat for domestic consumption are also estimated above the five‑year average in 2025/26, with increased rice imports more than compensating for the decline in domestic production.

Rice prices lower year-on-year in May 2026

Wholesale prices of rice (second quality) steadily declined from December 2025 to May 2026, reflecting improved year-on-year market supplies from the 2025 main season paddy harvest and a 7 percent appreciation of the Costa Rican colon against the United States dollar between February and June 2026, which reduced import costs. Currency appreciation, lower international quotations and above-average import volumes from May 2025 to April 2026 pushed prices in May 2026 to about 10 percent below their year-earlier level.

Prices of black beans fell in April and May 2026, due to larger year‑on‑year import volumes from January to April 2026. In May 2026, prices were about 6 percent lower than a year earlier, broadly mirroring lower export prices in the United States of America, the country’s main supplier of beans. Conversely, white maize prices were 8 percent higher on a yearly basis, reflecting increased export prices in the United States of America, which supplies about 85 percent of the country’s maize imports.

Overall, food prices contracted from July 2025 to May 2026, with the annual food inflation rate officially estimated at about ‑4 percent in May 2026, mainly reflecting the effects of currency appreciation, which reduced the cost of imported food items and agricultural inputs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .