Reference Date: 07-August-2024

Planted area with 2024 wheat crop preliminarily forecast at below‑average level

The 2024 wheat planting is ongoing. Although no official forecast is available yet, the planted area is anticipated at a below‑average level due to low prices in the domestic markets, which discouraged farmers to plant wheat. Weather forecasts point to a high probability of below‑average rainfall amounts in the September to November period over the main producing central southern areas, curtailing yield prospects.

Harvesting of the 2024 maize crop was completed in May 2024 and production is estimated at a below‑average level. This is due to the record‑low sowings, officially estimated to be 22 percent below the five‑year average. Planted area with maize has been declining during the last ten years due to the low profitability of grains. In 2024, low prices at planting time induced farmers to further curb the area sown.

Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 forecast at near‑average levels

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at a near‑average level of 3.7 million tonnes. In particular, wheat imports are expected to decline mainly due to the weakening demand by the salmon farming sector, on account of the expected decline in salmon production in 2024, while maize imports are likely to increase due to larger needs by the poultry and swine industries.

Retail prices of rice and potatoes higher year‑on‑year in July 2024

Retail prices of rice rose during the first half of 2024 and, as of July, they were 30 percent higher year‑on‑year, supported by elevated international quotations. After a sharp decline between December 2023 and May 2024 due to increased supplies from a rebound of the local harvests, prices of potatoes were stable in June to July. However, prices remained above their year‑earlier levels in July 2024 due to reduced production in 2022 and 2023. Prices of bread have been stable throughout the first six months of the current year, and they were near their year‑earlier levels in July 2024.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .