Reference Date: 21-December-2022

Drier‑than‑average weather conditions forecast in coming months

Planting of the 2023 winter crops, mainly wheat, to be harvested from July next year, took place between September and November 2022 under drier‑than‑average weather conditions. As of early December, soil moisture levels were below average, particularly in western regions. According to prevailing weather forecasts, there is a high likelihood of below‑average cumulative precipitation levels between December 2022 and February 2023 that may hinder crop establishment and development.

Slightly below‑average cereal output estimated in 2022

Harvesting of the 2022 cereal crops finalized in September 2022 and the output is estimated at 233 000 tonnes, 5 percent below the five‑year average level. The outputs of wheat and barley are estimated at 130 000 tonnes and 70 000 tonnes, respectively. These volumes are well above the low outputs harvested in 2021, but still slightly below the average levels due to a gradual reduction in planted area, as farmers prefer to cultivate crops that are more profitable.

Cereal imports in 2022/23 forecast slightly above‑average level

More than half of the domestic needs of cereals are covered by imports, mainly from the Russian Federation. Cereal import requirements in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 398 000 tonnes, slightly above the average level. Wheat imports, which account for most of the total cereal purchases, are forecast at an above‑average level of 350 000 tonnes, on account of the below‑average output obtained in 2022.

Prices of wheat flour higher than a year before

Domestic prices of wheat flour showed an increasing trend since mid‑2021 until June 2022. Prices remained overall stable afterwards, amid the introduction of a six‑month ban on wheat exports to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on 26 May 2022. Last November, prices were about 10 percent above their year‑earlier levels, due to increases in costs of production and transport.

Prices of potatoes, another important staple food, reached very high levels in mid‑2022 with seasonal trends exacerbated by a surge in demand, amid high prices of other staples and reduced domestic supplies, due to large exports. Prices decreased sharply between June and September 2022, following the harvest of the new tubers. In October and November, they seasonally increased and reached levels similar to those recorded a year before.

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