Reference Date: 25-August-2025

Above‑average cereal output forecast in 2025 due to favourable weather conditions and government subsidy programme

The harvest of 2025 winter crops, primarily wheat, began in July in Ararat Valley, while the harvest of 2025 spring crops, mainly barley, also started in July. Average precipitation amounts and near‑average temperatures since May, coupled with adequate availability of irrigation water, had a positive impact on vegetation conditions across the country, particularly in parts of the western provinces of Armavir and Aragatsotn, where about 20 percent of the annual wheat output is produced. The 2025 aggregate cereal production is forecast at 230 300 tonnes, about 1.5 percent above the average level.

Cereal import requirements in 2025/26 forecast at above‑average level

More than half of domestic needs of cereals are covered by imports, mainly from the Russian Federation. Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at an above‑average level of 500 000 tonnes. Wheat imports, which account for most of the total cereal purchases, are forecast at an above‑average level of 400 000 tonnes. On 26 June 2025, the government introduced a six‑month ban on exports of grains (wheat, barley and maize), with the aim to increase local supply and improve national food security.

Prices of wheat flour slightly increased during first half of 2025

According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia , the Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.2 percent year‑on‑year in May 2025. Retail prices of wheat flour (first grade) slightly increased between January and June 2025, but remained stable year‑on‑year.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/.

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/.

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/.

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .