Reference Date: 13-October-2026

Favourable cereal production prospects in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 winter wheat crop was completed in June in the Northern and Central Highlands, where adequate rainfall amounts supported above‑average vegetation conditions, pointing to favourable production prospects. Sorghum and millet crops continued to develop during the Kharif season, with harvesting expected to start from mid‑October. The Kharif rainy season was marked by significant rainfall deficits in July across most producing areas, slowing vegetation development. However, rainfall improved from late July onwards, supporting a recovery in crop conditions across most cropping areas. In September, rainfall remained below average in several areas, while geospatial indicators continue to point to generally favourable cereal production prospects in 2026.

Cereal import requirements forecast at near‑average level in 2026

Cereal import requirements in the 2026 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at 5.2 million tonnes, close to the five‑year average. According to the latest Yemen Market and Trade Bulletin, wheat and wheat flour imports through monitored ports surged in July 2026 to nearly double their year‑earlier level before declining by 48 percent month‑on‑month in August, when they remained about 7 percent below their August 2025 level. Fuel imports also fell sharply, by about 85 percent year‑on‑year in August 2026, with no recorded arrivals of diesel or petrol through northern ports. Persistently low fuel imports, coupled with foreign exchange constraints and elevated transportation costs, continue to increase import and distribution costs, thereby constraining food affordability and access.

Acute food insecurity expected to persist in 2026 amid renewed conflict

In the Government of Yemen (GoY)‑controlled areas, the Yemeni rial remained broadly stable at about YER 1 555/USD 1 in August 2026 and was about 4 percent stronger than a year earlier. Exchange rate stability helped contain the cost of imported food commodities. Retail prices of imported wheat flour and Basmati rice were about 1 percent and 5 percent, respectively, lower year‑on‑year, while the cost of the minimum food basket (MFB) declined by about 2 percent. Nevertheless, despite some easing in food prices, limited and volatile household incomes continue to constrain purchasing power and access to food.

Acute food insecurity is expected to remain at high levels in 2026. According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 5.4 million people, representing half of the analysed population in GoY‑controlled areas, are projected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between October and December 2026, including about 1.8 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The expected deterioration is largely driven by reduced humanitarian food assistance amid severe funding shortfalls, weak household purchasing power and limited livelihood opportunities. In addition, the escalation of the conflict since July 2026 has caused significant population displacement and further constrained humanitarian access.

In Sana’a‑based Authorities (SBA)‑controlled areas, humanitarian conditions remain severe amid persistent economic constraints and the suspension of aid operations, which has further reduced assistance to vulnerable households.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .