Reference Date: 20-November-2024

Average cereal production forecast in 2024

Harvesting of the 2024 10^th Month paddy crop, which accounts for about 20 percent of the annual output, is ongoing and production is forecast at 7.8 million tonnes, about 5 percent below the previous five-year average. The reduced output mostly reflects crop losses caused by flooding and several storms and typhoons, including super Typhoon Yagi, which struck northern parts of the country in late September. The 2024 winter/spring paddy crop, which accounts for 45 percent of the annual output, was harvested between April and June, and production is officially estimated at an average level of 20.3 million tonnes. The 2024 summer/autumn paddy crop, which accounts for 35 percent of annual output, was harvested by October and production is estimated at 15.1 million tonnes, amid favourable yields and a stable area planted. The aggregate 2024 paddy production is forecast at average 43.2 million tonnes.

The 2024 maize cropping season will finalize at the end of December with the harvest of the secondary summer/autumn crop, which accounts for 20 percent of the annual production. The 2024 main winter/spring crop, which accounts for 80 percent of total production, was harvested last July. Aggregate 2024 maize production is forecast at slight a below-average level of 4.4 million tonnes, mostly due to a reduction in sowings as farmers preferred to grow more profitable vegetables, fruits and other cash crops. In northern areas, storms and typhoons caused some localized crop losses.

Cereal import requirements forecast at well above-average level in 2024/25 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a well above-average level of 19 million tonnes. Imports of maize, which account for most of the total cereal imports, are projected at 11.4 million tonnes, 6 percent above the average, reflecting the reduced domestic production in 2024 and low international prices that will encourage purchases from abroad. Wheat is not produced in the country and imports are forecast at 5.4 million tonnes, significantly above the average, driven by strong domestic demand for both high-quality wheat for human consumption and low-quality wheat for animal feed. Demand for feed crops rose significantly in the last four years, mainly reflecting the increase of domestic pork meat consumption and the high demand for pork meat by China (mainland).

Exports of rice, the country’s primary exportable cereal, are forecast at 7.7 million tonnes in the 2025 calendar year, down 3.9 percent from expected exports in 2024.

Prices of rice lower year-on-year in October 2024

Wholesale prices of rice reached record levels in December 2023, driven by expectations of strong exports in 2024 and increases in costs of production and transport. Then, from January to October 2024, prices had an overall declining trend, largely due to adequate market availabilities. Last October, prices were about 15 percent below their high year-earlier levels.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .