Reference Date: 18-October-2024

Below‑average 2024 first season cereal production gathered in bimodal rainfall areas

In bimodal rainfall areas covering most of the country, the onset of the second rainy season, which normally extends from September to November, was delayed by about two weeks. The early season dryness was offset by abundant rainfall amounts received in the second half of September, which benefited germination of second season crops, to be harvested from December. According to the latest weather forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGADs) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), rainfall amounts during the remainder of the cropping season are expected to be above average over the northern half of the country and below average over the southern half.

In bimodal rainfall areas, the 2024 first season harvest was concluded in July and cereal production is estimated at a below‑average level. The first rainy season, which extends from March to June, was characterized by severe rainfall deficits, which significantly affected yields, especially in northern West Nile, Lango and Acholi subregions, where seasonal precipitation amounts were among the lowest on record. Overflows of Lake Victoria and Lake Kyoga in May 2024 caused additional crop losses.

Reduced 2024 harvest forecast in Karamoja Region

In the unimodal rainfall agropastoral Karamoja Region, harvesting of the 2024 crops is currently underway and will conclude in November 2024. The rainy season, which normally extends from April to September, was characterized by an erratic distribution of precipitation. Below-average rainfall amounts in April and May affected crop establishment and development. Despite some improvements of the rains during the remainder of the rainy season, crops did not fully recover from the initial dryness and production prospects are unfavourable.

Prices of maize and beans at low levels

The national average price of maize declined by about 10 percent between May and August 2024 as the first season harvest increased market availability. Prices in August 2024 were about 35 percent lower year-on-year, mainly due to adequate carryover stocks.

Similarly, price of beans, another important staple in the local diet, declined by about 7 percent over the same period and, in August 2024, they were about 15 percent lower year-on-year.

Severe food insecurity situation in Karamoja Region

In Karamoja Region, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 401 000 people (30 percent of the analysed population) are estimated to face severe acute food insecurity between August 2024 and February 2025. This figure includes 375 000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 26 000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) levels of acute food insecurity.

The severe food insecurity situation is mainly due to consecutive poor local harvests and protracted insecurity causing livelihood losses.

As of end‑September 2024, the country hosted more than 1.76 million refugees and asylum seekers, including about 963 000 people from South Sudan and about 540 000 people from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Most refugees and asylum seekers lack adequate access to livelihood opportunities and rely entirely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .