Reference Date: 31-August-2026

Production of 2026 main cereal crops estimated at above‑average level

Harvesting of the 2026 main maize crop concluded in April, while harvesting of the 2026 main paddy crop finalized in July and production of both crops are preliminary estimated above the five‑year average. Precipitation amounts during the December to March rainy season were average to above average across most of the country, benefitting planting operations and crop development, and supporting favourable production prospects. However, below‑average precipitation amounts in February and March 2026 may have constrained crop development in some cereal‑producing areas of Manatuto and Baucau municipalities, located in central and eastern parts of the country, respectively. Planting of the 2026 minor off‑season maize and paddy crops finalized in July under generally favourable weather conditions. Remote sensing data, as of mid‑August 2026, show good vegetation conditions in most cropping areas (NDVI map).

Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of below‑average precipitation amounts and elevated temperatures between September and November 2026 across most of the country, reflecting the influence of the ongoing El Niño event, which is expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026 and persist at least through the January‑March 2027 period. Depending on its intensity, El Niño may negatively affect yields of the 2026 off‑season crops and disrupt planting operations and early crop development of the 2027 main season crops, which are scheduled to be planted from October 2026 onwards.

Above‑average cereal production obtained in 2025

The 2025 cropping season was completed in January 2026, and the aggregate cereal production is estimated at an above‑average level. The favourable output reflects large sowings, encouraged by relatively high prices of cereals at planting time as well as adequate precipitation amounts throughout 2025, which supported yields across most of the country.

Cereal import requirements forecast at close to average level in 2026/27 marketing year

The country relies on imports to meet about 60 percent of its cereal consumption needs, with rice accounting for the bulk of import volumes and sourced from India, China (mainland) and Viet Nam. In the 2026/27 marketing year (April/March), cereal import requirements are forecast close to the average level.

Prices of rice in July 2026 lower than elevated levels of year earlier

Between August 2024 and July 2026, domestic retail prices of rice, the country’s main staple food, followed a generally declining trend, reflecting increased market supply from the 2025 harvests and 2026 main harvest and adequate import volumes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .