Reference Date: 27-November-2025

Above‑average cereal production forecast in 2025 due to favourable weather conditions

Harvesting of the 2025 main maize and paddy crops, accounting for the bulk of annual production, finalized in April and July, respectively. Production of both crops is estimated to be above the five‑year average, reflecting large plantings driven by remunerative domestic prices at planting time, while favourable weather conditions and increased use of high‑yielding seed varieties resulted in bumper yields. Harvesting of the 2025 minor off‑season maize crop is underway and is expected to finalize at the end of November, while the minor off‑season paddy crop, scheduled for harvest from December onwards, is currently at maturation stage of development. As of early November 2025, remote sensing data show good vegetation conditions in most cropping areas, inferring to favourable yield expectations (NDVI map).

Planting of 2026 main maize crops started in October 2025 under generally adequate soil moisture conditions, while the 2026 main paddy crops are expected to be planted from December onwards. Area planted with both crops is expected to be above the average, reflecting strong domestic demand.

Average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025/26 marketing year

About 60 percent of the country’s total cereal consumption needs are covered by imports, mostly sourced from India, China (mainland) and Viet Nam. In the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March), cereal import requirements are forecast at an average level of 210 000 tonnes.

Prices of rice in September 2025 lower than year‑earlier elevated levels

Between August 2024 and August 2025, domestic retail prices of rice, the country’s main staple, followed an overall declining trend, reflecting the increased market supply from the 2025 main season harvest. As of September 2025, prices were about 10 percent lower than the elevated levels of a year earlier.

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This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .