Reference Date: 02-August-2024

Area planted to 2024 main paddy crop forecast at above-average level

Planting of the 2024 main (mostly rainfed) rice crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the annual output, started in mid-May with about two-week delay due to soil moisture deficits in most cropping areas. Since June, rainfall amounts were generally average to above average over the main paddy producing areas, benefiting planting operations and supporting crop establishment and development. FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), as of mid-July 2024, indicate generally favourable vegetation conditions across most cropping areas (ASI map). Pockets of below-average rainfall amounts persisted until mid‑July in few central provinces, hampering planting activities and affecting early stages of crops. The area planted is forecast to be above average.

Planting of the 2024 main maize crop was completed early July, with a slight delay due to dry weather condition in April and early May. Improved precipitation amounts from late May in the Northern Region, where maize cultivation is concentrated, supported planting operations and early crop development. Overall, the area planted is estimated at an above-average level, driven by strong demand from the livestock sector. Planting of the 2024 second maize crop will take place in from January to March 2024.

Above average paddy production harvested in 2023

The 2023 paddy production is estimated at above‑average 32.6 million tonnes thanks to robust plantings. The 2023 maize output is estimated at average 4.9 million tonnes.

Rice exports forecast to remain robust

Rice exports in the 2024 calendar year are forecast at 8.6 million tonnes, close to previous year’s high level, reflecting ample exportable surpluses.

Domestic prices of rice higher than year earlier in June 2024

Domestic prices of rice increased sharply between March and August 2023 amid weather induced production disruptions and strong export demand. Since September 2023, prices have fluctuated, but as of June 2024 they remained about 30 percent higher year-on-year.

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This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .