Reference Date: 23-January-2026

Favourable production prospects for 2025/26 main paddy crop

Harvesting of the 2025/26 main (mostly rainfed) paddy crops, accounting for about 80 percent of the annual output, will finalize by the end of January 2026. Sown area is estimated close to the five‑year average and slightly changed from the previous year’s level. As of end‑September 2025, at the start of the harvest, remote sensing data indicated good vegetation conditions in most cropping areas (ASI map), inferring to generally favourable yields. Planting of the 2025/26 second (mostly irrigated) paddy crop, accounting for about 20 percent of the annual output, is ongoing under generally adequate soil moisture conditions and supply of water for irrigation. The 2025/26 aggregate paddy production is forecast at 33.5 million tonnes, down 1.9 percent from 2024/25 due to expected cuts in the area planted to the secondary crop, but still slightyly above the five-year average. Harvesting of the 2025/26 main maize crops finalized in October 2025 and production is estimated at an average level. The 2025/26 second maize crops are currently at maturation stages of development, with growing conditions generally favourable in Northern Region, where maize cultivation is concentrated. The 2025/26 aggregate maize production is preliminarily forecast at 5 million tonnes, close to the average.

Rice exports in 2025 declined

In calendar year 2025, exports of rice, the country’s major exportable cereal, are estimated at 7.7 million tonnes, down from the 9.9 million tonnes exported in 2024, due to increased competition for markets.

Domestic prices of rice significantly lower year‑on‑year in December 2025

Domestic prices of rice generally declined between June 2024 and October 2025, reflecting ample market availability from the above‑average production harvested in 2024/25 and reduced demand for export. Despite some increases in November and December 2025, in December 2025, prices remained about 30 percent below their year‑earlier levels.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .