Reference Date: 30-April-2024

Land preparation for 2024 cereal crops ongoing

Land preparation for 2024 cereal crops is underway. Planting of millet is expected to start in May, while planting operations of maize, sorghum and rice crops will begin in June. Weather forecasts for the May to July period indicate a high probability of average to above‑average rainfall amounts, which are expected to benefit germination and early development of crops. In April 2024, torrential unseasonal rains in some southern areas caused damage to cereal stocks.

Cereal production in 2023 estimated at below‑average level

Harvesting operations of 2023 cereal crops concluded last December. Aggregate 2023 cereal production is estimated at about 2.6 million tonnes, nearly 6 percent below the 2022 near‑average level, mainly reflecting the impact of dry spells and pest infestations. The most significant production shortfalls were recorded in Lac, Barh el Gazel and Kanem regions, where the cereal output was estimated at about 15 to 20 percent below the five‑year average.

Prices of coarse grains near or below year‑earlier levels in most markets

Retail prices of maize, millet and sorghum followed mixed trends in the first two months of 2024. In February 2024, prices of coarse grains were near or below their year‑earlier values in most markets. However, in the market of Abéché, prices of millet and sorghum were 10 and 15 percent, respectively, above their year‑earlier levels, and in the market of Bol, the price of maize was 30 percent higher year‑on‑year. The elevated prices in these markets mainly reflect cereal production shortfalls coupled with high local demand due to the influx of Sudanese refugees.

Alarming levels of acute food insecurity projected for the 2024 lean season

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 3.36 million people (20 percent of the analysed population) are projected to be acutely food insecure (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between June and August 2024, including over 534 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a substantial deterioration compared to the same period in 2023, when about 2.28 million people (13 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to be acutely food insecure.

Since the eruption of the conflict in the Sudan in mid ‑ April 2023, about 716 000 Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees have crossed the border to seek refuge in the country, mostly in Ouaddaï, Sila and Wadi Fira regions, with an additional 195 000 people expected to arrive by the end of 2024. Food insecurity in host communities has worsened due to the sustained pressure on food stocks and livelihoods as well as to disruptions in food trade following the border closure with the Sudan. During the 2024 lean season, nearly 420 000 refugees and returnees (34 percent of the analysed population) are projected to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above), including over 122 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency).

In Lac Region, cuts in humanitarian assistance for the 216 000 internally‑displaced persons (IDPs) as well as for host households, combined with significant local production shortfalls in 2023, has contributed to worsening acute food insecurity.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .