Reference Date: 27-January-2026

Cereal output in 2025 forecast at above‑average level

Harvesting operations of the 2025 coarse grain and rice crops concluded in November and December 2025, respectively. Harvesting of the flood-recession sorghum crop, locally known as berbéré, is ongoing and is expected to be completed in February 2026. The 2025 rainy season had a mixed performance, with significant variations among regions. In the Sahelian zone, the rainy season was characterized by a timely onset in June and by well‑distributed, above‑average cumulative precipitation amounts through September. These favourable weather conditions boosted yields and offset the reduced output harvested in parts of the Sudanian zone. There, the start of the seasonal rains, which usually occurs in May, was delayed by up to one month, affecting planting operations and crop germination, and requiring replanting in some regions. Cumulative rainfall amounts through early October were generally average to above average, but precipitation had an erratic spatial and temporal distribution, affecting crop development and reducing yield prospects in several areas.

Civil insecurity continued to disrupt agricultural activities in 2025, particularly in Lac Province and some southern areas, resulting in localized production shortfalls.

The 2025 aggregate cereal production is forecast at about 3 million tonnes, approximately 9 percent above the average of the previous five years.

Prices of coarse grains below year‑earlier levels

Retail prices of locally produced millet declined by up to 15 percent between August and November 2025, while retail prices of local maize and sorghum decreased by up to 30 percent during the same period in most monitored markets. In November 2025, prices of coarse grains were generally below their year‑earlier values, supported by improved supply following destocking by traders and the commercialization of newly harvested crops.

About 1.93 million people acutely food insecure in the last quarter of 2025

According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 1.93 million people (11 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to be acutely food insecure (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October and December 2025, including nearly 96 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This is below the 2.42 million people (14 percent of the analysed population) estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance during the same period in 2024. The difference between the two years is largely due to the severe floods in 2024, which affected about 1.9 million people and reduced the 2024 cereal output, increasing humanitarian needs across the country.

The sustained influx of people fleeing the conflict in the Sudan, which started in April 2023, has raised the refugee population to about 1.5 million, two and a half times its pre‑crisis level. In addition, about 344 000 Chadians returned to their country of origin as of late January 2026. The increased presence of displaced people exerts significant pressure on local livelihoods, markets and basic social services, particularly in host communities in Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira, Sila and Ennedi Est provinces.

Conflict remains a key driver of acute food insecurity in several regions. In Lac Province, attacks by non‑state armed groups displaced about 226 000 people as of May 2025. In addition, intercommunal conflicts were reported within the province as well as in some southern areas of the country in 2025. In regions bordering Libya, civil insecurity disrupted cross‑border trade, affecting the food supply in local markets.

Heavy rainfall between late August and early October 2025 triggered flooding in southern parts of the country, especially in Mandoul and Moyen‑Chari provinces, disrupting the livelihoods of about 123 000 people.

CH projections indicate that about 2.98 million people are expected to face acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season, between June and August, including nearly 264 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). Updated projections for this period, along with estimates for the March to May 2026 period, are expected to be released in March 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)

https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Cadre Harmonisé (CH) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ch/ .