Reference Date: 01-November-2024

Cereal harvest for 2024 estimated at below-average level

The harvest of winter crops particularly wheat and barley was completed in August 2024, with an expected output of 3.4 million tonnes, about 13 percent below the average. Despite adequate rainfall amounts during the rainy season, yields have been affected by poor temporal rainfall distribution throughout the season, high temperatures in April and May, spread of diseases due to unfavourable climatic conditions and limited access to farming input due to their high prices.

Wheat production in 2024 is estimated at 2 million tonnes, about 47 percent below the pre-crisis average and 16 percent below last year’s level. At the end of 2023, fertilizer prices for the 2023/24 season announced by the government were about three times higher compared to those of the previous year, which restrained farmers’ accessibility to essential inputs and increased production costs, with negative consequences on agricultural output.

Weak currency rate and economic instability put upward pressure on import costs and domestic prices

In 2024, food prices have increased across the country, but at different rates: more in government-controlled regions and less in the northeast's self-administration areas, a key food and energy production zone. Price disparities are essentially driven by ongoing internal conflict, economic country conditions, lack of energy and emerging regional, neighbouring conflicts which increases costs and creates further obstacles along the entire supply chain for both intraregional and interregional trade among regions.

In June 2024, the cost of living measured by the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) surged by 92 percent year-on-year and more than tripled compared to 2022. The parallel exchange rate hovered around 14 900 SYP/USD, surging by 68 percent from 2023. Retail wheat flour prices averaged around SYP 9 700/kg, with an increase of about 50 percent compared to the price a year before. Wheat import requirements for the 2024/25 (July/June) marketing year are tentatively forecast at 1.6 million tonnes, around 8 percent below the average as private sector importers are likely to face obstacles considering the combination of currency devaluation, macroeconomic instability and the escalated conflict in the region putting upward pressure on import costs.

Food insecurity conditions expected to deteriorate in 2024

The suspension of the World Food Programme’s (WFP's) general food assistance since the beginning of 2024 had a severe negative impact on food security. Funding shortages halted the delivery of food aid to 7.5 million people, including 3.5 million most vulnerable people. Some efforts to resume distributions are ongoing, even if they are likely to address only a small portion of the needs outlined in the 2024 Syria Humanitarian Response Plan. Between January and July 2024, about 195 000 households received food aid out of the 1.1 million households that were in need.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .