Reference Date: 23-February-2026

Late onset of seasonal rains delayed planting of 2026 cereal crops

Planting of the 2026 cereals started late in rainfed areas due to the delayed onset of seasonal rainfall in December 2025. The planted area is likely to be limited driven by early season dry conditions and high input costs, including seeds, fuel, fertilizers, labour and transport, which discouraged farmers from expanding planted areas. However, above-average rainfall in December replenished soil moisture levels, supporting crop establishment. Precipitation between February and April will be critical for crop development. Above-average temperatures are forecast, which may adversely affect yields.

Cereal production estimated significantly below average in 2025 due to severe drought

Total cereal production in 2025 was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, more than 60 percent below the average, due to severe drought conditions. Rainfall amounts throughout the season, between November 2024 and May 2025, were more than 50 percent below the long-term average. Furthermore, localized unrest during the planting season and high prices of inputs negatively affected the extent of planted area.

Above-average wheat import requirements forecast for 2025/26 marketing year

Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 3 million tonnes, nearly 70 percent above the five-year average, following two consecutive years of significantly below-average domestic production. International sanctions on financial transactions, imposed since 2011, were lifted in June 2025, facilitating imports. However, economic uncertainty, national currency devaluation and localized domestic unrest continue to constrain access to foreign currency required to secure cereal imports to adequately cover consumption needs.

Food insecurity persisted in areas affected by conflict and drought in 2025

According to the 2025 Food Security Assessment , while food security improved in some governorates, including Tartous and Damascus, food insecurity persisted in conflict- and drought-affected areas including Raqqa, Al Hasakeh and As Suwayda. The severe drought in 2025 adversely affected agricultural production and limited livelihood opportunities, reducing the profitability of agricultural activity and agriculture-based livelihoods. This added to the challenges faced by the Syrian population, including cash liquidity shortages that hinder the financing of economic activities and disrupt markets, resulting in reduced households’ income and constrained access to food.

The Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB), a key indicator of the domestic cost of living, decreased by almost 20 percent year-on-year in November 2025, mainly due to the lifting of import restrictions, which increased food supply, and the removal of military checkpoints across the country, which reduced transport costs. However, despite the MEB decline, the official minimum wage covers only half of the food components of the MEB, indicating persistent weak purchasing power.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .