Reference Date: 17-October-2024

Widespread floods resulting in significant crop losses

In southern bimodal rainfall areas, harvesting of the 2024 first season crops was concluded last August. Seasonal rainfall amounts were below average, but were adequate for crop growth and cereal output is estimated at average levels. In northern and central unimodal rainfall areas, harvesting of the short cycle sorghum and maize crops has recently started, while long cycle sorghum crops will be gathered from November 2024 to January 2025. The June-to-September rainy season has been characterized by average cumulative rainfall amounts, but they had an erratic temporal distribution. Average to below-average precipitation in June and July were followed by torrential rains in August, which, together with overflows of the river Nile and its tributaries, triggered widespread floods. The states most affected by the floods are Unity, Warrap, Lakes and Jonglei, where substantial crop losses are reported.

According to the latest Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) weather forecast, rainfall amounts between October and December 2024 are expected to be above average in southern bimodal rainfall areas, likely benefiting yields of second season crops, to be harvested in early 2025.

Food prices surging since early 2024 following sharp depreciation of exchange rate

In the capital, Juba, prices of maize and sorghum surged by about 85 percent between February and August 2024, while prices of imported wheat quadrupled over the same period. In August 2024, prices of maize, sorghum and imported wheat were at record levels, between two and four times their year‑earlier values. In a context of severe macroeconomic challenges, the surge of cereal prices since early 2024 has been caused by a sharp depreciation of the national currency, which was mainly the result of a substantial reduction of oil exports due to damages to the pipelines passing through the Sudan and by disruptions in oil shipments via the Red Sea.

Dire food security situation due to multiple shocks

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 7.1 million people (56 percent of the total population) were estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of acute food insecurity during the lean season between April and July 2024. The highest prevalence of severe acute food insecurity, ranging between 65 and 75 percent, was reported in the states of Unity, Upper Nile and Jonglei, in Pibor Administrative Area and among returnees from the conflict‑affected Sudan. Concern exists for about 79 000 people facing IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of acute food insecurity, including 11 000 people in Pibor County of the Greater Pibor Administrative Area, 40 000 people in Aweil East County in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State and 28 000 returnees from the Sudan spread across the country.

The main drivers of the dire food security situation are protracted macroeconomic challenges resulting in high inflation, insufficient food supply, the lingering impact on livelihoods of consecutive years with widespread floods and episodes of intercommunal violence.

Following the peace agreement signed in 2018, the security situation has generally improved and, until end-May 2024, about 1.4 million displaced people returned to their places of origin, including about 251 000 in the first semester of 2024. However, the situation remains volatile, with the deteriorating economic conditions and rising cost of living driving incidents of armed criminality and banditry.

Currently, about 2 million people remain internally displaced and 2.29 million refugees are residing in neighbouring Uganda, the Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Kenya.

About 808 000 people, mainly South Sudanese returnees, arrived from the Sudan since the conflict erupted in April 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .