Reference Date: 14-May-2024

Land preparation for 2024 cereal crops ongoing

Land preparation for the 2024 coarse grains (maize, millet and sorghum) and rice crop is underway and planting operations are expected to start in June. Weather forecasts for the June to August period indicate a high probability of average to above‑average rainfall amounts, which are expected to benefit germination and early development of crops.

Cereal production in 2023 estimated at above‑average level

Harvesting operations of the 2023 coarse grain crops concluded last November, while harvesting of the 2023 rice crop finalized last January. Aggregate 2023 cereal production is officially estimated at nearly 4.3 million tonnes, about 16 percent higher on a yearly basis and nearly 30 percent above the average of the previous five years, reflecting a generally favourable rainfall distribution and farmers’ improved access to agricultural inputs.

Prices of most cereals near or below year‑earlier levels

The national average price of maize decreased seasonally by 10 percent between August and December 2023, while the prices of millet and sorghum declined by about 20 percent. In the first quarter of 2024, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends, and, in March 2024, they were below their elevated year-earlier levels.

In the first quarter of 2024, after approximately a year of relative stability, prices of local and imported rice rose by about 25 and 10 percent, respectively. In March 2024, prices of local and imported rice were about 25 and 10 percent, respectively, above their year‑earlier levels. The elevated prices of rice reflect trends on the international market and low domestic stock levels coupled with strong local demand, particularly in urban areas.

About 519 000 people projected to be acutely food insecure during the 2024 lean season

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, nearly 519 000 people (about 3 percent of the population) are projected to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the next lean season, between June and August 2024, including approximately 12 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This shows a substantial decrease in the number of acutely food insecure people compared to the same period in 2023, when over 1.26 million people (about 7 percent of the population) were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. The projected improvement of the situation is mainly due to an above‑average cereal production harvested in 2023. Furthermore, positive prospects for national economic growth, which would enhance income‑earning opportunities, and a forecast decline in inflation in 2024 are expected to improve households’ capacity to access food.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .