Reference Date: 07-August-2024

Dire food security situation, with famine conditions assessed in Zamzam Internally displaced people (IDP) camp in North Darfur State and likely ongoing in nearby areas

According to the results of the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 25.6 million people (54 percent of the population) are estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of acute food insecurity between June and September 2024. The highest prevalence of severe acute food insecurity, ranging between 60 and 69 percent, is reported in the states of Blue Nile, El Gezira and South, West, Central and North Darfur. Particular concern exists for about 755 000 people facing IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of acute food insecurity, more than half of them located in the Greater Darfur Region. Famine conditions are ongoing in the Zamzam IDP camp in North Darfur State, while in nearby Abu Shouk and Al Salam camps similar conditions are likely, but could not be assessed with a sufficient confidence level.

The main driver of the dire food security situation is the ongoing conflict that, since its start in April 2023, has caused the destruction of key economic infrastructures, especially in the capital, Khartoum, the main business hub, with the ensuing paralysis of most economic activities. In December 2023, the conflict spread to El Gezira and White Nile states, and intensified in North Darfur, West and South Kordofan states, with an ensuing further deterioration of the local food security situation. Food trade and marketing disruptions, pillages of food stocks and severe constraints to the delivery of humanitarian assistance are reported, and widespread insecurity resulted in the internal displacement of 10.7 million people.

Concerns for 2024 cereal production due to widespread insecurity and input shortages

Planting of 2024 cereal crops, for harvest from November 2024, will be concluded in mid‑August. Generally favourable weather conditions prevailed so far, benefiting sowing operations. The June to September rains are forecast by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) at above‑average levels across the country. However, there are concerns for the 2024 cereal output, as the conflict has spread to southeastern key‑producing areas since late 2023, with severe access constraints to land reported in Sennar, White Nile and Blue Nile states. In addition, persisting shortages of agricultural inputs and widespread insecurity, which is forcing owners of several large‑scale farms to leave the country, will continue to constrain yields.

To mitigate the impact of the conflict on agricultural production, FAO is assisting 1.8 million farmers’ households (9 million individuals). About 1.2 million households in 17 states are currently receiving seeds of sorghum and millet, the main cereal staples, in particular in the areas most affected by the conflict, namely the Greater Darfur and the Greater Kordofan regions. Furthermore, FAO is supporting farmers with locust monitoring and control, restocking of small ruminants and distribution of animal feed, farming equipment and sesame, watermelon, groundnuts, okra and vegetables seeds.

Below‑average cereal production in 2023

The performance of the 2023 cropping season has been very poor due to the impact of the conflict, which caused widespread insecurity, large‑scale displacements and severe shortages, and soaring prices of agricultural inputs. An erratic spatial and temporal distribution of seasonal rains, with prolonged dry spells in southeastern key‑producing areas, further diminished yields and contributed to reducing crop production.

According to the findings of the government‑led Annual Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, 2023 production of cereals (sorghum, millet and wheat) is estimated at about 4.1 million tonnes, 46 percent below the output obtained in the previous year and about 40 percent below the average of the previous five years.

Cereal import requirements in 2024 are forecast at about 3.38 million tonnes, including 2.44 million tonnes of wheat and 662 000 tonnes of sorghum. However, the limited financial and logistical capacity of the country raises concerns about the possibility of satisfying these import needs.

Cereal prices at exceptionally high levels

Cereal prices, which have been following a sustained increasing trend in recent years due to macroeconomic challenges, increased at faster rates since the beginning of the conflict, soaring due to insufficient supplies, disruptions of trade flows and physical destruction of markets. Between March 2023, immediately before the outbreak of hostilities, and May 2024, prices of domestically‑produced sorghum, millet and mostly imported wheat more than doubled in nearly all monitored markets, reaching record levels.

The exceptionally high level of cereal prices is severely constraining food access in the context of reduced households’ purchasing power, undermined by a sharp reduction of employment opportunities.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dashed lines on the maps represent approximate borderlines for which there may not yet be full agreement. The final boundary between the Republic of the Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei area is not yet determined.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .