Reference Date: 07-July 2026

Wheat production forecast at above-average level in 2026 supported by government procurement prices

Wheat harvest was completed in May 2026, and production is forecast at about 1.1 million tonnes, nearly 8 percent above average and slightly below last year’s production level. Domestic wheat production is regulated through a government quota programme, with annual production targets determined according to groundwater availability. Ahead of the 2025/26 planting season, which started in mid-October 2025, the government announced the wheat procurement price at SAR 1 450 per tonne, substantially above international export prices, encouraging small farmers to expand wheat cultivation.

Cereal import requirements forecast above average in 2026/27

Cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 15 million tonnes, more than 10 percent above the five-year average.

Wheat import requirements in the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 4 million tonnes, about 3 percent above the five-year average, reflecting the need to replenish strategic reserves and meet sustained domestic demand, supported by the continued growth in the food services sector. The General Food Security Authority (GFSA) continues to procure wheat through international tenders from a diverse range of exporting countries to ensure adequate domestic supplies and maintain strategic grain stocks.

Maize and barley import requirements are forecast at 4 million tonnes and 5 million tonnes, about 20 percent and 12 percent above the five-year average, respectively. The high import needs largely reflect robust demand for feed grains from the growing poultry and livestock sectors, underpinned by continued government support to the poultry industry.

Food price inflation remained low in early 2026

In early 2026, annual food inflation remained subdued at less than 1 percent, reaching 0.7 percent in May. The national average price of Indian basmati rice declined by 2 percent year‑on-year, reflecting lower international rice prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .