Reference Date: 19-November-2024

Delayed onset of 2024 (September‑November) short‑rains

The 2024 short‑rains, which normally extend from September to November, established in late September, delaying planting operations and affecting the germination of early-planted crops. Above-average precipitation amounts in October 2024 offset the rainfall deficits and improved vegetation conditions of crops to be harvested between December 2024 and January 2025.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), precipitation amounts during the remainder of the rainy season are expected at below‑average levels, with a likely negative impact on yields of 2025A crops. A close monitoring of rainfall performance during the next weeks is warranted.

Aggregate cereal production in 2024 estimated at above‑average level

The 2024 aggregate cereal production is officially estimated at 977 000 tonnes, about 15 percent up from the previous year and almost 25 percent above the average of the previous five years. The bumper harvest reflects the positive effect of favourable weather conditions on yields and the expansion of the planted area following the government’s decision, in early 2024, to increase the maize farmgate price caps.

Regarding non‑cereal staples, production of beans and cooking bananas is estimated slightly above the five‑year average, while cassava output is estimated at average levels.

Prices of maize and beans below year‑earlier levels

In the capital, Kigali, prices of maize and beans seasonally increased by about 35 percent between July and October 2024, when they were about 15 and 10 percent, respectively, lower on a yearly basis due to adequate domestic availability.

Generally favourable food security situation

The country is generally food secure. Food availability is expected to improve in December 2024, when the 2025A season crops will start to be available for local consumption, ending the lean season.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of end-September 2024, the country hosted about 135 000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi. Most of them live in camps and they mainly rely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .